BANGKOK: Thailand's auto exports are set to hit a record this year, good news for an industry bogged down by weak domestic demand and an economy struggling to recover after 18 months of military rule.
The government is hopeful that stronger momentum in the sector - accounting for around 10 percent of GDP and employing a tenth of its workers in manufacturing - will lift economic growth that was just 0.9 percent last year.
Cars, parts and accessories, Thailand's biggest export category, rose an annual 3.9 percent in the first 10 months of the year, Commerce Ministry data showed this week, even as total exports contracted 5.3 percent over the same period.
"We believe this export business will now become more important for Thailand in view of the current economic situation in the country, and due to the opportunities created by free-trade measures," said Noriaki Abe, president and CEO of Asian Honda Motor Co, the Bangkok-based arm of the Japanese automaker.
The popularity of pick-up trucks in Asia, more demand from top buyer Australia and the launch of new and affordable car models, have helped Thai car exports, industry executives say.
Known as the "Detroit of Southeast Asia", Thailand is a regional base for some of the world's top carmakers, including Toyota Motor Co and Honda Motor Co.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said it expects exports of completely built units (CBU) to rise by 6.4 percent to a record 1.2 million this year and 1.22 million next year.
Toyota has a target of 390,000 cars for exports this year and 265,000 for domestic sales; Isuzu says its exports should reach a record 102,000 cars, up from 88,000 last year.
"Our exports are getting better by day, by night," said Panatda Chennavasin, a senior vice president of Tri Petch Isuzu Sales.
Honda has already exceeded last year's exports of 52,565 cars, and aims to export a record 72,700 cars in 2015, said Pitak Pruittisarikorn, chief operating officer of Honda Automobile (Thailand).
"A more favourable external environment should play out for Thailand in 2016, especially as some greenshoot recovery is observed from the strong auto exports this year," said Barnabas Gan, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore.
FEW BRIGHT SPOT
While auto shipments are improving, weak global demand has exacerbated a long-term decline in some of Thailand's other export sectors. Total shipments are forecast to fall 5 percent this year - a third straight year of decline.
Record-high household debt, including some built up under a first-car subsidy scheme, has hurt spending in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy under military rule since May 2014.
The subsidy scheme saw sales boom 81 percent in 2012. But in the aftermath of the scheme, sales have fallen on an annual basis every month since May 2013.
The government expects the economy will grow between 3 and 4 percent next year, with exports rising 3 percent, and the auto sector is a pivotal factor in those projections.
"Auto exports are expected to grow strongly into the first quarter of next year. They will be key to help lift confidence in the economy," said Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
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