MOSCOW: Rain and mild temperatures are likely to help the wheat harvest in parts of the Black Sea region during next week, meaning no damage to crops still to be harvested in Russia and Kazakhstan.
Unfavourable weather patterns remain the key risk for global food supplies and have made about 16 percent of China's wheat crop unfit for human consumption, farmers and analysts told Reuters on Wednesday.
Import demand to compensate for the damage could make China the world's top buyer, overtaking Egypt, which is traditionally the main importer of Black Sea wheat, and is likely to support global wheat prices .
In June a Chinese state company started purchasing grain from Ukraine's state-run grain corporation for export to clients in China, the Middle East and elsewhere.
So far this season, Russia and Ukraine have harvested 35 million tonnes of wheat, with the campaign two-thirds completed in Ukraine and one-quarter finished in Russia. Kazakhstan is expected to start its campaign next month.
These three Black Sea-region producers need favourable weather to boost wheat harvest by one-third to more than 83 million tonnes of wheat this year, to replenish stocks and increase exports after last year's drought.
EXPORTS REGIONS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE
Wheat crops in the main export regions of Russia and Ukraine are accounted for as both have almost completed harvesting in their southern regions, near the Black Sea ports.
The 2013 wheat harvest in Russia's largest Black Sea farm region of Krasnodar is complete at 7.1 million tonnes, twice the size of last year. Neighbouring regions are likely to complete harvesting soon.
Ukraine has already completed two-thirds of harvesting, analysts said, adding that their forecasts remained unchanged.
"We stick to our outlook of 19.2 million tonnes. More than 60 percent (of the planted area) has been harvested and the yields are within our forecasts," said Tatyana Adamenko, head of the state weather forecasting centre's agriculture department.
The harvesting campaign now shifts to the north of the country, and the wheat yield is unlikely to change significantly from current 3.11 tonnes per hectare, up from 2.35 tonnes last year, Yelizaveta Malyshko, an analyst at Ukragroconsult said.
Ukragroconsult expects a wheat crop at 20.1 million tonnes. Ukraine harvested 14.26 million tonnes of wheat from 69 percent of the forecast planting area as of July 15.
Russian wheat yields were 3.23 tonnes per hectare as of July 16, up from 2.55 tonnes last year. Some 20.7 million tonnes has already been threshed from 26 percent of area.
Russian officials hope to increase the harvest by one third to 50 million tonnes or more after a drought last year.
RAIN IN NORTH KAZAKHSTAN AND SIBERIA
Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest grain producer, is expected to harvest 13.5 million tonnes of wheat or more by bunker weight this year, a senior Agriculture Ministry official said on Tuesday in the first official estimate.
After drying and cleaning, clean-weight harvests in Kazakhstan are usually 5-10 percent smaller than bunker-weight.
"Weather forecasters expect rains and thunder storms in the main grain-growing areas next week, which is good for our future bread, although rains are a bit late this year which has affected wheat productivity," the official said.
The region's main grain belt is in the north, and in neighbouring Russia's Urals and Siberian regions. Harvesting typically starts in mid-August plus or minus 10 days, and then moves into full swing for all of September.
Siberian yields may recover - at risk after sowing was delayed by a late spring - helped by rain and mild temperatures during the first 10 days of July. The harvesting campaign could start after mid-September when it may be already snowing in the region, compared with the usual end-August start, SovEcon said.
"Situation for the harvest turned for the better (in Siberia)," said SovEcon chief executive Andrei Sizov. He kept his wheat crop forecast unchanged at 49.5-51.5 million tonnes and added Russia's wheat exports may come at 500,000-600,000 in July.
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