Balochistan: In the face of adversity

Time to dread draws closer as the winter season gains pace in Balochistan. With temperatures falling below freezing point in many districts of the province during the next few months, the fear of gas-less days engulf the residents of cold-struck areas. Terrorist activities to disrupt the natural gas supply to households and industrial facilities wreaked havoc from January to November CY11, let alone the gas loadshedding to counter the natural gas shortfall. Till November 12, 2011, the number of terrorist attacks on gas pipelines in Balochistan stood at 62, showing how unrest in Balochistan is affecting the oil and gas sector of the economy. The number of incidents has galloped into double digits and the situation has worsened following the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in August 2006. To no ones surprise, banned groups took no time to claim responsibility in most cases, sabotaging the gas pipeline infrastructure, as revenge for their dead leaders and activists. Factors accountable for the insurgency and unrest remained the talk of media even before a low-level insurgency accelerated in 2005-06. Indeed Pakistans economy is one of the worlds most natural gas dependent countries. Unsurprisingly what lies in store for the country from here is faltering investment in the oil and gas sector. Adding to the misery, the county is amongst the first to fall vulnerable to the crunch in major investing countries. When BP had to cut its operations due to the financial crisis, Pakistan was deselected in a blink of an eye. The rising tide of violence in the volatile Balochistan province is a serious threat that is not being realised in its true sense as no viable and long term reforms appear on the horizon. In the midst of diminishing attraction of the oil and gas sector, projects like Pak-Iran gas pipeline with the investment of $7 billion to provide 750 MMCFD and TAPI gas pipeline worth $7.6 billion providing 1.365 BCFD of gas might appear to be the rays of hope. However, with the current attitude and pace of economic and political development, they are mere pseudo expectations. With the gas demand and supply gap widening, a country that was once considered self-sufficient in natural gas is now aiming to seek additional supplies over and above the ongoing projects. The not-so-friendly provincial-federal government relations ignite a streak of uneasiness as the provincial government protests from time to time against the unfair treatment as opposed to the most populated province of Punjab. Rejection of Reko Diq gold and copper mining lease by the government of Balochistan to some extent is the outcome of these erratic relations. Flipside of an impressive success rate of 1:3.3 compared to the international rate of 1:10 has deeper meaning. Balochistan where the majority of the energy-starved countrys natural gas facilities are located remain almost inaccessible portraying inept attempts to tap resources. Natural inventories remain untouched due to political and fundamentalist interests. Military operations in Balochistan have compounded the unattractiveness of the gas sector where there is little to believe that the insurgency in the province will end in the near future.