Strategic dialogue: play it safe, avoid extreme risks

Pak-US strategic dialogue is indeed a forum for the USA and its most "trusted ally" to lay the foundations for a shift in the on again off again relationship that has marked the relationship between the two countries, in the past. Last time the superpower took its mind off this region, the consequences were anything but pleasant.
Although, federal secretaries unusual visit, albeit in somewhat unusual circumstances, to the GHQ, amply highlights the fact that security will be the focal point in talks at Washington DC, General Kayanis role in the dialogue has been debated a great deal in local and international media.
His army is blamed for playing on the US interests, its time he goes back to ask for support from his "allies". Pakistan is fighting a war, at least partly on the US agenda, on credit. The general will surely be interested in seeking arrangements for the swift release of war costs; particularly the ones already incurred.
High on the wish list for Pakistan is the GSP plus status. Access for Pakistani products to American markets, especially a preferential status for textile exports from the country for the next two years. Essentially, this status will reduce import duties on Pakistani products, making them more competitive.
Meanwhile, finalizing a free trade agreement between the two countries needs to be sought to give Pakistani exports to USA the same status as enjoyed by 16 other countries including Egypt, Oman and Jordan.
Energy deficits remain one of the gravest concerns for Pakistan. Repeatedly, leaders in Islamabad have requested help for a civil nuclear programme. Unsurprisingly though, they have not been entertained so far. Pakistan must earn the confidence of the Obama administration and assure the Americans oversight, if any progress is to be made.
It would equate Pakistan with India in the nuclear relationship. However, the oversight in Pakistans case may be more stringent. This is essential as mega nuclear power plants, with a generating capacity of 500 mega watts or more are needed for which help from America and other Western allies is direly needed.
Besides nuclear, coal gasification is the only another option for power generation in Pakistan given its large coal deposits in the Thar region of Sindh. Pakistan produces a near negligible 0.1 percent of its electricity from coal while its two big neighbours, China and India meet 80 and 60 percent of their needs from coal respectively.
As always, monetary assistance will be on the discussion table. In addition to the Kerry-Lugar bill support, the Pakistani delegation is expected to ask for support in areas that are measurable. Some $20 billion from multilateral agencies and another $15 billion in the form of public private partnerships through OPIC are expected to be negotiated for development and infrastructure needs of the country.
Will these talks bear fruit?
High-ranking US officials have made around 25 visits to the Pakistani capital in the last year. A strong conviction that the Afghan problem cannot be solved without a stable Pakistan has been resonating in the Obama camp ever since the elections. If the USA is to find its endgame in Afghanistan, it has to come through the help of Pakistan.
Considering the US delegation is being led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with Admiral Mullen, General Jones and CIAs Panetta making prominent appearances from the US administration, clearly indicates that the folks in Washington mean business.
Both counterparties need the other to further its interests. Striking a balance of give and take should be the policy of the general and his men.

=================================================================

US PAK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE: KEY ISSUES

=================================================================

Issue                 Obstacles                        Likelihood

GSP Plus              Congress approval               Less likely

Civil Nuclear         Security/trust deficit     Rare possibility

Coal Power            Security                        Fair chance

Monetary aid          Congress approval/              Fair chance

                      trust deficit/corruption         with a lag

=================================================================

Source: BR Research