The early summers call for immediate attention

Summers have come a bit earlier this time around and with them have come the traditional flavours of power load shedding. The extent of the massive load shedding witnessed in many parts of the country during this week is usually seen in peak summer season from May to September.
Oddly enough, there is a huge difference in the reported figures of the power shortfall between Wapda and Pepco. One Wapda official, on condition of anonymity said that the load shedding numbers reported in the news from Pepco are incorrect and the actual shortage witnessed on Wednesday touched 4500 MW as opposed to Pepcos claimed number of 3400 MW.
There is nothing much one can do about this difference as it does not add to the problem nor does it lead to a solution.
What is worrying is the fast declining contribution to power generation from the hydel sources which has dipped to as low as 2500 MW. Pepco had estimated a significant contribution of 4135 MW from hydel sources during March in order to reduce the power shortfall, but this forecast has been badly hit by the problems at Tarbela and Mangla dams, which have hit their respective dead levels.
It is pertinent to mention that the massive fall in hydel generation has come at a time when the tube well usage in both Sindh and Punjab is at its lowest as the crops have mostly ripened. The situation would have been even worse, if the farms were using the tube wells for an extended period.
It is not that the power demand has suddenly shot up in a years time - rather it is very much at the previous years level, but the supply side constraints have mounted to a level causing a summer-like load shedding across the country.
Time and again has the ministry of power assured the nation of no gas shortage from March onwards, but that sadly, has not been the case. Although, the winters are done and dusted, but the gas availability to the thermal power stations suggests otherwise, as SNGPL has pulled off its gas supply to the IPPs, in the latest development.
The devil of circular debt and the resulting furnace oil shortage saga is well documented and unfortunately does not seem to fade away from the scene, anytime soon. It was just a couple of months back, when the government confidently ruled out the possibility of the re-emergence of circular debt, professing that the issue has been dealt with for good.
How will the government deal with this issue is a secondary question. The primary one is that of the realization on part of the government that the circular debt is still very much around and is rather scarier this time around.
It is about time the government does away with the attitude of neglect regarding the root cause of the problem and stop denying that all IPPs are running at their optimum capacities and that there is not a single power plant that is idle.
The resolution of circular debt may not be a near-term possibility; therefore the government should rather concentrate on reviving the dead power units and implement the ADB plan of CFL bulbs in order to bring some respite to the consumers. If, unfortunately the status-quo remains, then brace yourselves for a very hot summer - in the parliament and even on the roads.