Whats behind the rupee fall?

In an attempt to forecast the movement of rupee, this column made a call a couple of weeks back that the currencys weakness might remain within the range of 83.50-84.50 against the greenback, following the central banks decision to allow oil payments through banks. But it also stressed that timely inflow of US Coalition Support Fund ($500mn) and ADBs support ($250 mn) is imperative.
Lately, the delay in the issuance of visa to US officials, followed by rather vocal US pressure tactics by withholding support funds have changed expectations amongst market participants. Leaving the politics of US visa row aside, lets confine ourselves to demand-supply dynamics on exchange rate pressure which is lately hovering around 85 mark.
Payment of the countrys oil import bill that hovers around $10-11 billion per annum (30% of imports) has now been fully passed on to the inter-bank market in a staged manner. The shifting of crude oil import bill from the central bank to inter-bank market roughly added $4.5 billion (15% of imports) alone - wiping out $200 million in just fifteen days from the open market. Mind you, the crude is swiftly moving north ever since this policy was implemented.
Moreover, home remittances that had been rather steady of late, partly due to Eid-ul-Azha related inflows, have started tapering off since September. This came in tandem with the reported deployment of equipment and services by telecom firms which adds further pressure to the demand for dollar, that pushed the rupee to a new low of 84.80 per US dollar.
The forex reserves that crossed $15 billion after receiving IMFs fourth tranche covering six months of imports, cushioned rupee from a free fall. But, if crude crosses triple figures in the near future, the story will be different. Yes, gloomy. Sadly, predicting the exact price of crude is not much different from tossing a coin.
The delay in defence related support funds, higher oil and some other payments i.e. supply demand dynamics and weakening sentiments owing to visa delay and chances of crude hike come to play in the rupee parity game. Sources reveal that $800mn plus worth of US coalition fund is overdue, adding that other funds and surcharges take the amount close to $2 billion. If fear overplays the delay in CSF inflows, rupee crossing 90 against greenback could well be a self fullfilling prophecy.