Tuesday, 25 September 2012 09:07
WELLINGTON/SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were holding ground on the US dollar on Tuesday, but nursed losses against the yen due to Japanese fund repatriation ahead of their half-year book-closing.
The Aussie edges up to $1.0438, from $1.0412 in early trade, having bounced from $1.0387 offshore. Key support at $1.0340, the 200-day MA and 61.8 pct of the $1.0165/$1.0625 move with resistance at $1.0564, last week's high.
The NZ dollar firm around $0.8237 after an overnight two-week low of $0.8184.
Near term support $0.8198, ahead of $0.8184. First topside hurdle $0.8250, then $0.8282.
Investors cautious after poor European data and weak earnings forecast from Caterpillar which added to global growth worries.
Antipodeans pressured by a broadly stronger yen as Japanese investors repatriate profits ahead of half-year book-closing this week.
Aussie at 81.15 yen, having lost more than a yen in two sessions. Support seen at 80.96, the 61.8 pct of the September climb, ahead of 80.80, the cloud base and 80.65, the 100-day MA. A break below would target a retracement to 79.65.
The kiwi at 64.11 yen, not far from a low of 63.76 on Monday. Support seen at 63.85, the 61.8 pct of the September climb, ahead of 63.51, the 50-day MA.
The Aussie steady against the kiwi at NZ$1.2664 , well off 5-month lows of NZ$1.2561 hit Friday.
Markets getting confident the RBA will deliver a rate cut next week with interbank futures implying a two-in-three chance of an easing in the 3.5 pct cash rate, while fully pricing a move in November.
National Australia Bank changed its call on rates on Monday predicting cuts in November and February due in part to the high currency, a slowdown in China and weaker commodity prices.
Yet, the Aussie remains a major beneficiary of foreign flows into the nation's government bonds as Australia is one among a shrinking pool of countries still rated triple-A by major agencies.
Australian debt futures gain, with the three-year contract up 0.03 points to 97.500 and the 10-year contract 0.045 points higher at 96.915.
Australia's banks are well placed to cope with any shocks from abroad, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. It also warned Europe's debt crisis remained a threat to the stability of the global financial system.
Later RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle gives a speech on credit and trust in the financial system.
NZ government bonds firmer sending yields 3 basis points lower along the curve.
Copyright Reuters, 2012