Wednesday, 19 September 2012 10:05
SYDNEY: US soybeans rose on Wednesday, propelled by bargain hunting after their biggest two-day selloff in seven weeks, spurred by expectations for yields across the Midwest to surpass forecasts as harvesting achieved a record pace.
Wheat rose, recouping all losses from the previous session, while corn also firmed.
Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans rose 1.43 percent to $16.63-1/2 a bushel, having closed Tuesday down 1.74 percent for a loss of nearly 6 percent over two days.
"The rise in soybeans is consumers trying to pick the bottom following two days of losses," said Victor Thianpiriya, an agricultural strategist at ANZ.
"Soybean fundamentals remain tight, but given the steep falls in the last two days, it's not surprising to see a little bit of buying."
December wheat rose 1.24 percent to $8.74-1/4 a bushel, recouping most of the previous session's 1.65 percent fall, while December corn rose 0.88 percent to $7.46-1/2 a bushel, having closed Tuesday down 1 percent.
"Wheat has had some pretty heavy selling in the last sessions too, and it was pretty close to its short-term trading range so there's some fairly strong support there," Thianpiriya said.
CHINA MAY BE FORCED TO DRAW DOWN RESERVES
Soybeans fell amid talk that drought damage to US soybeans might not be as bad as feared.
A Reuters poll of 14 analysts on Tuesday put the soybean yield at 35.85 bushels per acre, up 1.6 percent from the government's latest forecast of 35.3 bushels on Sept. 12.
The surprising yields are leading some analysts to predict that soybean ending stocks will not dip below the psychologically important level of 100 million bushels. The US Department of Agriculture has forecast stocks at 115 million bushels by next summer.
Top world oils analyst Thomas Mielke estimated stocks held by China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, at nearly 13 million tonnes, but the government may be forced to reduce stocks by about 4 million to 5 million tonnes by February.
Extended sales of reserve beans by China, which imports about 60 percent of global traded soybeans, may crimp crushing margins and appetite for imports and help alleviate the looming supply shortfall expected later this year.
Analysts also highlighted a surge in hogs slaughtered in the United States as alleviating some price pressure on soybeans.
HARVEST PRESSURE LINGERS
The record pace of the US crop harvest weighed on the grains complex this week.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that 10 percent of the soybean harvest was complete by Sunday, just ahead of the 9 percent expected by 11 analysts polled by Reuters.
Corn firmed following two consecutive sessions of losses amid harvest pressure. Monday's USDA report showed 26 percent of US corn was harvested versus 15 percent a week earlier, and slightly better than the expected 24 percent.
Copyright Reuters, 2012