Asia Stay updated with Business News, Pakistan news, Current world news and latest world news with Business Recorder.. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia.html Wed, 17 Sep 2014 07:33:21 +0000 SRA Framework 2.0 en-gb Spot gold to gain more to $1,249 http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195547-spot-gold-to-gain-more-to-$1249.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195547-spot-gold-to-gain-more-to-$1249.html imageSINGAPORE: Spot gold may gain further to $1,249 per ounce, as a rebound from the Sept. 15 low of $1,225.30 has not completed.

The rebound was triggered by support at $1,226, the 150 percent Fibonacci projection level of a downward wave C that developed from the Aug. 8 high of $1,322.60.

A part of this wave has been unfolding in a falling channel. The current rebound could be towards the upper channel line, which is about $1,249, the 114.6 percent projection level.

A break below $1,226 will confirm the extension of wave C towards $1,218, the 161.8 percent projection level.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 05:06:59 +0000
LME copper to retest resistance at $6,991 http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195542-lme-copper-to-retest-resistance-at-$6991.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195542-lme-copper-to-retest-resistance-at-$6991.html imageSINGAPORE: LME copper is expected to retest resistance at $6,991 per tonne, as a five-wave cycle rising from the Sept. 16 low of $6,810 has not completed.

So far, only four waves have unfolded and the current wave 4 may end around $6,915. The fifth, labelled 5, will then take over to travel towards $6,991, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the July 8 high of $7,212 to the Sept. 11 low of $6,770.

A break above $6,991 will open the way towards $7,043, the 61.8 percent retracement.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:59:45 +0000
LME aluminium may retrace to $2,018 http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195540-lme-aluminium-may-retrace-to-$2018.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195540-lme-aluminium-may-retrace-to-$2018.html imageSINGAPORE: LME aluminium may retrace to $2,018 per tonne, as it failed to break a resistance at $2,037.

The resistance is provided by the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the Sept. 8 high of $2,118 to the Sept. 15 low of $1,987.

A pullback could have been triggered, towards the trendline which fell from $2,118 and points a target at $2,018, the 23.6 percent retracement.

A break above $2,037 will open the way towards $2,053, the 50 percent retracement.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:56:44 +0000
Shanghai copper to test resistance at 49,760 yuan http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195534-shanghai-copper-to-test-resistance-at-49760-yuan.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195534-shanghai-copper-to-test-resistance-at-49760-yuan.html imageSINGAPORE: Shanghai copper is expected to test a resistance at 49,760 yuan per tonne, a break above which will lead to a further gain to 50,190 yuan.

The resistance is provided by the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from 51,580 yuan, an hourly chart high touched on July 3, to the Sept. 15 low of 47,940 yuan.

Copper seems to have stabilized around a support at 49,330 yuan, the 38.2 percent retracement. Chances are it may gain more to 49,760 yuan, the 50 percent level. A drop to 49,100 yuan could signal a completion of the rebound.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:45:09 +0000
Palm oil to end rebound around 2,142 ringgit http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195532-palm-oil-to-end-rebound-around-2142-ringgit.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195532-palm-oil-to-end-rebound-around-2142-ringgit.html imageSINGAPORE: Palm oil may end its current rebound around a resistance at 2,142 ringgit per tonne before starting a correction towards 2,055 ringgit.

The rebound has adopted a zigzag mode, which consists of three waves, with the first and the third wave roughly sharing the same length.

A Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the June 25 high of 2,511 ringgit to the Sept. 2 low of 1,914 ringgit reveals a strong resistance at 2,142 ringgit- the 38.2 percent level, which may trigger a correction towards the 23.6 percent level at 2,055 ringgit.

A break above 2,142 ringgit will open the way towards 2,213 ringgit, the 50 percent level.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:43:09 +0000
Gold inches up for 3rd day; Fed eyed for rate outlook http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195529-gold-inches-up-for-3rd-day;-fed-eyed-for-rate-outlook.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195529-gold-inches-up-for-3rd-day;-fed-eyed-for-rate-outlook.html imageSINGAPORE: Gold inched up for a third straight session on Wednesday as speculation mounted that the Federal Reserve would vow to maintain interest rates at low levels when the US central bank concludes its policy meet later in the day.

The Fed is expected to make a statement on policy decision at 1800 GMT, with markets awaiting hints on when the Fed would increase rates. Any increase in interest rates would dim the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

The Fed had said earlier that it would keep rates near zero for a "considerable time" after ending its bond-buying program, with the markets believing that no change would be made until mid-2015. Talk of an earlier rate hike have increased due to strong economic data.

Any change in the 'considerable time' guidance hinting towards an earlier rate hike "may have important ramifications for gold and would likely press prices lower", HSBC analysts said in a note.

Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,236.70 an ounce by 0257 GMT, after closing up 0.2 percent in the previous session.

Still, prices were not too far from an eight-month low of $1,225.30 hit on Monday as the dollar gained in strength and reached a 14-month peak this month amid expectations of an earlier rate hike.

Bearish investor sentiment was reflected in the flows of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. The fund's holdings fell 4.18 tonnes to 784.22 tonnes on Tuesday.

The US dollar, however, took a knock on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal's Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath said the central bank would keep the words "considerable time" in its policy statement, though it might qualify them.

Bullion investors were also eyeing Thursday's referendum on Scottish independence to gauge the impact on the dollar.

"A yes vote is likely to be bullish for gold and a no vote slightly bearish," HSBC said, adding that investor uncertainty from a yes vote would boost gold demand.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:39:39 +0000
US soy exports to China could drop by quarter with crush-margins at 2-year low http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195396-us-soy-exports-to-china-could-drop-by-quarter-with-crush-margins-at-2-year-low.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195396-us-soy-exports-to-china-could-drop-by-quarter-with-crush-margins-at-2-year-low.html imageSINGAPORE/BEIJING: Chinese imports of US soybeans could plunge by as much as a quarter in the crop year that began this month after processing margins in the country fell to their lowest in two years, industry sources said.

The potential drop in shipments to the world's biggest buyer of the commodity comes as the United States is gearing up to harvest a record soybean crop, piling more pressure on benchmark prices that this week hit their lowest in four years.

Any hopes that demand for the products churned out by China's soybean processors would pick up in the next few months have been dashed by tepid growth in the world's No.2 economy.

That has left processors to keep struggling with the so-called negative margins they have been hit with since February, meaning they cannot cover the costs of producing edible oil or animal-feed ingredient soymeal.

"The first half of the (calendar) year was the worst on record for the industry," said a Singapore-based senior official at an international trading company, which owns soybean processing facilities in China.

"With the way things are, we don't expect prices and demand to recover anytime soon," said the executive, who declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.

Record soy imports in the 2013/14 crop year coupled with slowing demand from the livestock sector have resulted in a glut of soybeans in China, dragging processing margins into negative territory.

China's crackdown on commodity financing trade has compounded the woes of an industry saddled with huge losses, prompting some importers to default on cargoes.

Those challenges did not filter through to January-July total soy import volumes, which climbed about a fifth from the year before to 41.68 million tonnes, as a raft of cargoes booked in advance arrived in China.

But they are expected to hit soybean shipments from October-December, historically the period when imports pick up.

And as the United States is set to start marketing its soybean crop at that time, it will initially be hurt far more than other exporters such as Brazil and Argentine which are yet to plant the crops they will market in 2014/15. China buys around 60 percent of soybeans traded in the world.

"This year, imports from the U.S. could fall by one fourth because of large soy stocks and poor margins," said an analyst with official think tank, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. China imported around 27 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2013/14.

He added that Chinese imports from the United States had been particularly high in 2013/14 as processors shied away from South American purchases due to industrial action at ports in Brazil.

A second trade source in China said purchases of U.S. beans could drop to 23 million tonnes in 2014/15 as the industry faces mounting losses.

Chinese processors are losing almost 400 yuan ($65) by crushing 1 tonne of imported soybeans in Shandong, the hub of China's soybean industry, according to data from private consulting firm Shanghai JC Intelligence.

Soyoil in Shandong is trading near its lowest since 2006 as rising global edible oil supplies pressure prices.

Soymeal climbed to a one-month high in early August, but has since been on a downward trend, last week dropping to its weakest since March.

That could prompt the U.S. Department of Agriculture to reduce its estimate for total Chinese soybean imports in 2014/15.

China is forecast to import 74 million tonnes of soybeans in the year to September 2015 up from an estimated 69 million tonnes this year, according to the agency.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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imad_kueconomist@yahoo.com (Imaduddin) Asia Tue, 16 Sep 2014 13:15:31 +0000
NY coffee may drop below neutral range of $1.81-$1.8650 http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195393-ny-coffee-may-drop-below-neutral-range-of-$181-$18650.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195393-ny-coffee-may-drop-below-neutral-range-of-$181-$18650.html imageSINGAPORE: New York December coffee is biased to drop below a neutral range of $1.81-$1.8650 per lb, as it has approached $1.81.

The range has been formed by the 61.8 percent and the 50 percent Fibonacci retracements on the rise from the July 15 low of $1.6310 to the Sept. 2 high of $2.0995.

Based on a double-top that formed around $2.0995, the current downtrend may extend far below $1.6310. That means the support at $1.81 could eventually be broken.

A rise above $1.8650 could be extended to $1.9205, the 38.2 percent retracement.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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imad_kueconomist@yahoo.com (Imaduddin) Asia Tue, 16 Sep 2014 13:11:55 +0000
Vietnam Coffee: Discounts widen ahead of a bumper harvest http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195329-vietnam-coffee-discounts-widen-ahead-of-a-bumper-harvest.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195329-vietnam-coffee-discounts-widen-ahead-of-a-bumper-harvest.html imageHANOI: Lower global coffee prices and the prospect of a bumper harvest starting next month have widened discounts on Vietnamese coffee and exporters have been more willing to sell before fresh beans arrive, traders said on Tuesday.

The 2014/2015 crop will begin in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, from Oct. 1, with the harvest under way from late next month in the Central Highlands coffee belt.

The crop year ends in September 2015.

"Exporters are clearing warehouses in preparation for the next crop," said a trader from Lam Dong, Vietnam's second-biggest coffee-growing province after Daklak. London's November robusta contract closed down 1 percent at $1,977 a tonne on Monday, the lowest since Aug. 21.

The contract has lost 5 percent since the start of September. Given the prospect of low stocks in October before the harvest gets into full swing, exporters lowered the discounts on beans for loading next month to $30-$40 a tonne to the November contract, compared with $50-$70 a tonne last week.

However, Vietnamese fresh robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken to be delivered from November onwards was quoted at discounts of $80-$85 a tonne to the January deal.

"Anticipating a large crop, exporters are more flexible in signing deals with forward shipments and they are accepting larger discounts," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City said.

Domestic prices rose to 41,700 dong per kg on Sept. 3, the highest since April 11, leading more farmers to sell.

"Vietnam sold actively when prices picked up, but sales have slowed after global prices shrank," a trader at a European firm in Ho Chi Minh City said.

Robusta eased to 39,000-39,300 dong ($1.84-$1.85) per kg on Tuesday in Daklak province, from 39,400 dong on Monday and 39,900-40,700 dong a week ago, tracking falls on London futures.

RISING EXPORTS

Vietnam exported 97,800 tonnes of coffee (1.63 million 60-kg bags) in August, up 10.3 percent from the previous month, Vietnam Customs said on Tuesday, in line with traders' forecasts of between 70,000 and 120,000 tonnes.

The August shipment brought coffee exports in the first 11 months of the 2013/2014 crop year to 1.54 million tonnes, up 13.2 percent from a year before, based on government statistics.

Traders have projected exports this month of at least 100,000 tonnes, which suggested the 2013/2014 total could reach 1.64 million tonnes, up around 16 percent from the 2012/2013 season.

Given the 2013/2014 output of up to 1.8 million tonnes (30 million bags), stocks carried over to the next crop could be 200,000 tonnes, similar to the previous season, traders said.

The new crop is forecast to produce 27.5 million bags, according to a Reuters poll.

"Trees are healthy, cherries are growing steadily and look solid," another Ho Chi Minh City trader said while on a crop survey trip this week in the Central Highlands.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:18:58 +0000
NY sugar still targets 13.43 cents http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195318-ny-sugar-still-targets-1343-cents.html http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/195318-ny-sugar-still-targets-1343-cents.html imageSINGAPORE: A bearish target at 13.43 cents per lb remains unchanged for New York Oct. sugar as it has dropped below a support at 13.72 cents again.

The support was provided by the 300 percent Fibonacci projection level of a downward wave 3, the third wave of a five-wave cycle starting from the Aug. 22 high of 16.05 cents.

The next support will be at 13.43 cents, the 338.2 percent projection.

The rebound triggered by the 323.6 percent level at 13.54 cents seems to be over, as sugar has approached this level again. Chances are sugar may easily overcome this barrier, as the wave 3 has a fierce character.

The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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s.rs96@yahoo.com (Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui) Asia Tue, 16 Sep 2014 08:18:32 +0000