ISLAMABAD (July 24 2007): Pakistan is heading fast towards serious gas crisis as its demand and supply ratio is not showing equilibrium beyond 2007, Hagler Bailly, Pakistan, claims in a feasibility study conducted in 2006, for Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas line project.

The study indicates that Pakistan is going to witness gas shortage from 2007 onward and imbalance will increase every year to touch the highest level in 2025, when shortage will be 11092 MMCFD against total 13259 MMCFD production.

The study depicts very bleak picture as far as Pakistan's gas resources, demand and supply are concerned. The study is alarming and a wake up call for those who are at the helm of affairs.

It's yet to be officially ascertained how real and authentic information of the study is. However, majority of independent analysts of oil and gas sector agree that Pakistan could face serious problem in gas supply after few years.

This correspondent contacted some very senior officials of the Ministry of Petroleum to know what exactly the situation of gas demand and supply would be from 2007 onward. They conceded that as a result of high growth gas demand was showing upward trend and indigenous production would not be enough to maintain existing pattern of supply. However, they expected a major breakthrough in gas supply through some foreign source to keep things going.

One senior official of the Ministry said: "Everybody knows that indigenous gas production is shrinking quickly and if any foreign source (pipeline) does not materialise in next few years, things could get worse."

The feasibility study indicates that indigenous gas supply and demand were equal by 2006. However, in 2007, it witnessed quick shortfall and the gap would widen in the coming years.

The report said Pakistan gas shortage would increase alarmingly in the next two decades if it did not manage any alternative sources. Pakistan is making desperate efforts to make IPI see ground in next few years. Will it be so? This is a difficult question. The officials are actively engaged in talks to keep IPI case moving and this is all what they can do at the moment.

IPI is a key project for the entire region and it involves international polities more than anything else. On nuclear stand-off, US is all-out to block the pipeline. Washington can go to any extent to oppose the project as long as stand-off on Iranian nuclear issue continues.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2007