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GDP growth & business cycles

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  With emerging economies eyeing financial tools to strengthen their competitiveness, ‘financial inclusion’ has become the new buzzword in recent times. The recognition that the availability of financial services to all segments of the economy, mainly small businesses, is vital to fuel the engine of any country, SME lending is gaining huge attention these days. Realising this business potential, the banking sector has to play its part in advancing services to this less-served segment of the society.  However, fears of mounting non-performing loans have been keeping lenders at bay. The SME-sector NPLs surged from around Rs36 billion in 2006 to Rs96.5 billion in 2010, with the NPL ratio rising from nearly 8 to 29 percent in 2010.  Deterred by this trend, bank lending to SME declined from Rs408 billion in 2006 to Rs334 billion by the year ending 2010. Another major stumbling block is the low Forced Sales Value (FSV) benefit accruing to banks. ...

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  Large scale manufacturing numbers finally turned positive in January, after a much-painful wait. That should bring smiles on some faces. But a closer look shows that the LSM sector isn’t really marching towards the elixir of prosperity. Data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics show that of the list of items that showed positive year-on-year change in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, only a few formed a part of the real industrial base or were otherwise employment-heavy businesses in themselves. Prominent in these were; producers of Jeeps/cars/LCV, cotton yarn/cloth and hydrochloric/sulphuric acids. The whole of the ‘more important’ business segments -- such as producers of kerosene oil, HSD, motor spirits, soda ash, caustic soda, cement, glass, pig iron, coke, paints, deep freezers, and other electric appliances like fans, bulbs, and motors -- saw a decline in the first seven months. Some of this decline can be attributed to ...

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Banking Review 2011

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