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  After nearly 40 days of lifelessness, excitement is slowly crawling back in at the KSE. As it turns out, select buying by foreign and local investors has pushed the benchmark index to a level which is seen ‘pointing towards a recovery’. The KSE-100 ended at 11,954 points last week – its highest since March 14 – after marking an intra-week high of 12,023 points, which was also its biggest intra-day tick since mid-March. That, and the fact that last week’s average trading volume rose 25 percent (week-on-week), is gently creating ripples of optimism. Big boys from the local mutual fund industry, who had been selling profusely in March, are also back at the buying counter. NCCPL data show that mutual funds – led by NIT and PICIC, according to market sources – have bought $20.46 million worth of equities in the month to-date, nearly offsetting the sale of $21.02 million last month. Last ...

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  The National Investment (Unit) Trust is getting bigger and bigger. Boosted by growth in dividend income along with Rs1.45 billion earned from the difference between unit selling and buying price (element income), the country’s leading and oldest mutual fund saw profits jump 29 percent in the first nine months of current fiscal year. As its fund managers remained focused increasing their holdings, together with the growth in AUM and better take-home profits shared by the KSE listed companies, the fund’s dividend income increased to Rs1.57 billion in 9MFY11 as against Rs1.28 billion earned in the year-ago period. However, the expansion in fund portfolio slightly tailed off its capital gains. Backed by high appetite for equity securities and better performance of investment portfolio, the fund’s AUM reached Rs37 billion at the end of March, as against Rs32.9 billion same period a year earlier. “As the government has imposed capital gains tax, NIT’s fund managers ...
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  To say that Pakistan does not have a vibrant debt market would perhaps be an overstatement. A more appropriate expression would be that it’s ‘practically non-existent’. The reasons why this view has gained currency over the years are many; market prices of debt instruments are often different from broker rates, there are valuation issues, and the listing of corporate debt takes a lot of time – often six months, according to some market participants – amongst other issues. In addition, according to Nasim Beg, Chief Executive of Arif Habib Investments Limited, banks as trustees of TFCs “have failed to take timely action” in several cases of default. Beg also blames banks to have formed a “restricted-club” that doesn’t want to trade debt papers through the KSE’s recently launched Bond Automated Trading System (BATS). Thankfully, however, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan is now trying to tackle these issues head on, amongst others, ...
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  Talk about disappointment. Just when the bulls at Karachi’s equity market were expected to make further inroads by regaining their grounds, they seem to have drained out of energy. KSE-100’s movement last week also smacked the theory that all good news is boon for the market. Why else would the market pay no heed to the improvement in the large scale manufacturing index that turned positive after several months? Why would it also ignore the continuous improvement in the current account balance despite a nearly 8 percent month-on-month hike in average global oil prices in February? Similarly, why should the fiscal measures ordered by the president fail to stimulate the market? Even the onset of margin trading – which is marked by the so-called ‘bullish bias’ -- failed to spark an upward rally. Quite noticeably, the answer is in KSE’s asymmetrical relationship with foreign investors. Ever since the FIPI inflows started tapering off, the ...
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  The countdown to budget FY12 has begun. And along with it should come the typical pre-budget uncertainty at the Karachi equity bourse, as is usually the case every year. The difference between KSE’s historical pre-budget gyration and this year, however, is that this time around, the signs are in, a bit earlier than usual. Normally, the KSE-100 sees a strong first quarter on account of health corporate results that typically mark the quarters ending March. In CY11, however, the tides have changed. The benchmark index yielded a return of negative 1.75 percent in the quarter ending March 2011 – its lowest ever first quarter performance in roughly the last ten years. Here, a look at the graph would help better understand the situation at hand. The graph shows KSE-100’s daily return in the 100 trading sessions ending June each year, where, for the sake of clarity, the returns have been clubbed into 3-year ...
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  A change of hands is taking place at the Karachi Stock Exchange. After months of reliance on foreign portfolio to drive KSE-100’s rally, the dilly-dallying on the part of foreigners has now forced the market to think. The phase is marked by price weakness, falling volatility and decreasing trading volume. KSE data show that the benchmark index slipped marginally during the week ending March 25 – 53.6 points to be precise. Average volatility, crudely measured by the difference between intraday high-low, eased to 163 points last week from 216 points in the week before. Last week’s turnover also squeezed to an average 62 million from 112 million in the week before. But what is the market thinking? Ordinarily, one could have attributed the slow days to the preference to wait-and-see before the monetary policy decision that was announced on Saturday. The policy decision, however, was no news as such, because most, if not ...
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  Buoyed by signs of interest rate stability, the market has been witnessing improvement in the appetite for long tenor government papers of late. With fears of price risk assuaging in the bond market, the sixth PIB auction of the current fiscal year, held two days back, saw participation more than thrice the size of the pre-auction target amount of around Rs15 billion. This is starkly high as against the average participation to target ratio of around 1.02 for the first four auctions held in the first half of the current fiscal year. The auction drew most of the participation in 3 year, 5-year and 10-year bonds, attracting nearly 22 percent, 11 percent and 61 percent, respectively, of the total participation of around Rs49.7 billion. Given this scenario, the government rejected 7-year, 15-year, 20-year and 30-year bonds, and accepted a total of Rs22.4 billion from the other three tenor bond. While on the heels of correction ...

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Banking Review 2011

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