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Pakistan Macroeconomics


KSE: Looking for a direction A change of hands is taking place at the Karachi Stock Exchange. After months of reliance on foreign portfolio to drive KSE-100’s rally, the dilly-dallying on the part of foreigners has now forced the market to think. The phase is marked by price weakness, falling volatility and decreasing trading volume. KSE data show that the benchmark index slipped marginally during the week ending March 25 – 53.6 points to be precise. Average volatility, crudely measured by the difference between intraday high-low, eased to 163 points last week from 216 points in the week before. Last week’s turnover also squeezed to an average 62 million from 112 million in the week before. But what is the market thinking? Ordinarily, one could have attributed the slow days to the preference to wait-and-see before the monetary policy decision that was announced on Saturday. The policy decision, however, was no news as such, because most, if not ...

No change in discount rate The macro headlines have been turning positive: inflation is down and is expected to remain below 14 percent for the next two months; the external account is doing unexpectedly well; and more importantly, the government is keeping its promises made to the SBP. Two months back, Kardar was optimistic that the Ministry of Finance will abstain from inflationary borrowing from the central bank while the government will implement some austerity measures. Today, (as of March 12 ...

SME financing: engine for inclusive growth With emerging economies eyeing financial tools to strengthen their competitiveness, ‘financial inclusion’ has become the new buzzword in recent times. The recognition that the availability of financial services to all segments of the economy, mainly small businesses, is vital to fuel the engine of any country, SME lending is gaining huge attention these days. Realising this business potential, the banking sector has to play its part in advancing services to this less-served segment of the society.  However, ...

KSE bows down to FIPI outflows Talk about disappointment. Just when the bulls at Karachi’s equity market were expected to make further inroads by regaining their grounds, they seem to have drained out of energy. KSE-100’s movement last week also smacked the theory that all good news is boon for the market. Why else would the market pay no heed to the improvement in the large scale manufacturing index that turned positive after several months? Why would it also ignore the continuous improvement ...

Longing for long term bills The Treasury Bill auctions in the third quarter of the current fiscal year concluded with some positive trends, suggesting the strengthening of macroeconomic indictors. With fundamental factors pointing to a stable interest rate in the upcoming monetary policy, there has been an apparent shift in the market participation pattern during the treasury bill auctions held in 3QFY11. Aided by a decline in price risk, the 6-month and 12-month papers have surprised the market by drawing investors away ...

Not so rosy growth in LSM Large scale manufacturing numbers finally turned positive in January, after a much-painful wait. That should bring smiles on some faces. But a closer look shows that the LSM sector isn’t really marching towards the elixir of prosperity. Data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics show that of the list of items that showed positive year-on-year change in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, only a few formed a part of the real ...

Current account: the glory might end Clocking in at $98 million, the current account deficit during July-February FY11 comes as a breather for Pakistan’s economy in current times. But the thought of future prospects may retard the initial glee. The months gone by of FY11 have benefited from the favourable impact of higher commodity prices in international markets – in particular cotton and rice, two key export items of the country. The FAO Rice Price Index surged from 214 points in July 2010 ...


Index Closing Chg%
Arrow DJIA 17,813.39 0.01
Arrow Nasdaq 5,116.15 0.26
Arrow S&P 2,088.87 0.01
Arrow FTSE 6,393.13 0.88
Arrow DAX 11,320.77 1.35
Arrow CAC-40 4,946.02 1.08
Arrow Nikkei 19,944.41 0.49
Arrow H.Seng 22,488.94 0.04
Arrow Sensex 25,958.63 0.71

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Foreign Debt $62.649bn
Per Cap Income $1,512
GDP Growth 4.24%
Average CPI 8.6%
Trade Balance $-2.197 bln
Exports $1.729 bln
Imports $3.926 bln
WeeklyNovember 23, 2015
Reserves $19.713 bln