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Pakistan Macroeconomics


CPI: Taking a nap The cyclical upward movement in food inflation and the partial passing of the international oil price hike and its impact on other items pushed the consumer price index higher by 1.48 percent month-on-month during March. The CPI index had fallen 0.74 percent month-on-month in February. The high-base effect is playing its role as year-on-year inflation increased by 13.16 percent -- lower than the average of 14.59 percent for the first half of the fiscal year – taking the nine-month price hike to 14.2 percent. The high-base would also make April numbers modest despite the hike in fuel prices and its trickle down impact. The latest numbers are a little less than analysts’ forecast and the catch is in the change in the recording practice of petroleum prices. Previously, the FBS used to take the impact of change in petroleum prices in the preceding month i.e. fuel price revision for November used to ...

ADB’s fiscal roundup The Asian Development Bank has reinforced what many economists in the country already feared: an impending economic fiasco, with fiscal problems leading the way. The report, titled “Asian Development Outlook 2011”, recalled the fiscal faux pas committed by the country’s government, with the fiscal deficit widening from 5.3 percent of GDP in FY09 to 6.3 percent in FY10. The decline in tax revenues is largely to be blamed for the deterioration of the fiscal position, with the ...

Towards debt market development To say that Pakistan does not have a vibrant debt market would perhaps be an overstatement. A more appropriate expression would be that it’s ‘practically non-existent’. The reasons why this view has gained currency over the years are many; market prices of debt instruments are often different from broker rates, there are valuation issues, and the listing of corporate debt takes a lot of time – often six months, according to some market participants – amongst ...

Count on, for better policy decisions After a hiatus 13 years, the government is finally undertaking the gigantic task of putting an official figure to the number of heads vying for the scant resources of Pakistan. The magnanimity of the task can be quite daunting. After all, many important policy decisions are based on this exercise until the next census takes place. Simple as it may seem, what hold particular importance vis-à-vis this exercise are the policy implications that the census embodies. From ...

 Changing trends in T-bill auction The fourth and the last round of T-bill auctions of the current year has begun, with the government aiming to sell a total of Rs1150 billion worth of papers from all seven treasury auctions scheduled to be held in the current quarter. Just like the previous treasury auctions, market participation in the first treasury auction of this quarter, held two days back, remained strong with bids 1.4 times the amount subscribed. However, the government sold around Rs200 ...

An eye for an eye? The issue of strike against extortion in Karachi is multifaceted – and it is increasingly becoming complex in the wake of the ‘political hijacking’ of the movement and the divide between the trade bodies.   Karachi, like several other big cities of past and present, has had a history of gang wars, and other types of crimes like kidnappings, protection money, and so forth. So yes, it makes sense to strive for the elimination of the same.   However, ...

Put the creative foot forward Leadership and creativity have some common traits: not everybody is good at it and those who are, are often envied, ridiculed, or despised for their guts. The biggest similarity, perhaps, is the debate on, whether leaders and creative folks are born – as in God-gifted – or made, is still on. Yet, in the case of creativity, at least one thing is certain: once creative reserves are proven, its success can be amplified using the forces ...


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Foreign Debt $62.649bn
Per Cap Income $1,512
GDP Growth 4.24%
Average CPI 8.6%
Trade Balance $-2.197 bln
Exports $1.729 bln
Imports $3.926 bln
WeeklyNovember 23, 2015
Reserves $19.713 bln