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Pakistan Macroeconomics


“Tis but thy name, that is my enemy,” said Juliet Capulet, upon learning that the love of her life came from mortal enemies of her own clan. Continuing to address the object of her desire, “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet.” It is not often that a situation in contemporary times resembles this famous scene from the 16th century play as closely as the relationship between the IMF and Pakistan’s economic managers. Simply replace the “star cross’d” lovers with Pakistan’s soft-spoken, hard-hitting finance minister and the IMF’s head honcho on the stand-by arrangement, and Sheikh appears to be wooing the Fund with a similar reasoning. After all, an indirect tax collected at every stage based on the differential between input and output values will generate the same amount of revenues for the government, regardless of whether it is called value-added tax, ...

MDGs: long way off from Pakistan It won’t be too hard to guess that Pakistan is not on target to meet the Millennium Development Goals, aimed to be reached by 2015. The World Bank’s recent Global Monitoring Report 2011 reiterates this view, though with a more optimistic stance than any average Pakistani might hold. MDG goals focus on enhancing access to education, reducing gender disparity in education, eradicating poverty, improving maternal health and improving water and sanitation facilities. Compared to its South Asian peers, ...

Two to tango ‘Reforms’ is perhaps one of the most resounding words in Pakistan these days. From drawing rooms to ‘chai-khanas’; from Islamabad to business hubs, this word is ringing bells everywhere -- with most participants passing the bucket to the government. The government, no doubt, is responsible for providing basic amenities for the populace. But it is increasingly becoming evident, in the words of certain officials, that social contract between the government and the governed is breaking down. “You ...

Current account: On the bright side? Finally, it’s that time of the month, when Pakistan’s economic managers can have their feel good moment, while the politicians brag and boast of their performance. And why shouldn’t they? The latest external account numbers released by the central bank confirm the notion that Pakistan’s balance-of-payment position is in safe waters -- $99 million to be precise, for the first nine months of current fiscal year; which by the way is also the best nine-month performance ...

KSE: much too soon to confirm a break-out After nearly 40 days of lifelessness, excitement is slowly crawling back in at the KSE. As it turns out, select buying by foreign and local investors has pushed the benchmark index to a level which is seen ‘pointing towards a recovery’. The KSE-100 ended at 11,954 points last week – its highest since March 14 – after marking an intra-week high of 12,023 points, which was also its biggest intra-day tick since mid-March. That, and the ...

With the government counting on sovereign bond market and local commercial banks eyeing lucrative investment avenues, the second Treasury-bill auction of the fourth quarter was fairly well covered and successful. The amount of bids placed outstripped the auction target amount by 1.6 times. The government also accepted bids close to Rs233 billion, over and above the asked amount of Rs225 billion. The benchmark paper alone accounted for nearly three-fourth of the total participation level in the auction. ...

Can pay, won’t pay! By virtue of agriculture being a provincial subject, each province has in place a presumptive regime for the collection of income taxes from this sector. Going by the dictionary of Provincial laws, agricultural income consists of rents received from property used for agricultural purposes and income derived from cultivation or from owner-occupied buildings on the property. However, the quantum of revenue generated through these taxes has so far been paltry. Official data show that in FY06, ...


Index Closing Chg%
Arrow DJIA 17,719.92 0.44
Arrow Nasdaq 5,108.67 0.37
Arrow S&P 2,080.41 0.46
Arrow FTSE 6,356.09 0.30
Arrow DAX 11,382.23 0.78
Arrow CAC-40 4,957.60 0.56
Arrow Nikkei 19,747.47 0.69
Arrow H.Seng 21,996.42 0.33
Arrow Sensex 26,145.67 0.07

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Foreign Debt $62.649bn
Per Cap Income $1,512
GDP Growth 4.24%
Average CPI 8.6%
Trade Balance $-2.197 bln
Exports $1.729 bln
Imports $3.926 bln
WeeklyNovember 30, 2015
Reserves $19.828 bln