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Pakistan Macroeconomics

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“Tis but thy name, that is my enemy,” said Juliet Capulet, upon learning that the love of her life came from mortal enemies of her own clan. Continuing to address the object of her desire, “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet.” It is not often that a situation in contemporary times resembles this famous scene from the 16th century play as closely as the relationship between the IMF and Pakistan’s economic managers. Simply replace the “star cross’d” lovers with Pakistan’s soft-spoken, hard-hitting finance minister and the IMF’s head honcho on the stand-by arrangement, and Sheikh appears to be wooing the Fund with a similar reasoning. After all, an indirect tax collected at every stage based on the differential between input and output values will generate the same amount of revenues for the government, regardless of whether it is called value-added tax, ...

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  It won’t be too hard to guess that Pakistan is not on target to meet the Millennium Development Goals, aimed to be reached by 2015. The World Bank’s recent Global Monitoring Report 2011 reiterates this view, though with a more optimistic stance than any average Pakistani might hold. MDG goals focus on enhancing access to education, reducing gender disparity in education, eradicating poverty, improving maternal health and improving water and sanitation facilities. Compared to its South Asian peers, – India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh – Pakistan is on target for only a few of the goals, while the others have managed to be on the road to achieving more targets than Pakistan. The star of the quad is Sri Lanka, which is on target for most of the goals. Interestingly one of the very few goals that Pakistan is on target to meet, is poverty reduction. In this aspect the country has beaten regional ...
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With the government counting on sovereign bond market and local commercial banks eyeing lucrative investment avenues, the second Treasury-bill auction of the fourth quarter was fairly well covered and successful. The amount of bids placed outstripped the auction target amount by 1.6 times. The government also accepted bids close to Rs233 billion, over and above the asked amount of Rs225 billion. The benchmark paper alone accounted for nearly three-fourth of the total participation level in the auction. On the other hand, tenders for the 3-month and 12-month papers amounted to Rs44 billion and Rs50 billion, respectively. In line with fundamentals and market-based forecasts, the poor participation level in 3-month paper is pointing to stable interest rate in the next few months. Market sentiments improved on account of slight respite in inflation, stability in rupee and improvement in overall balance of payment. Since a long term interest rate outlook is dicey at the moment, the ...
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  Recently, the central bank allowed importers to cover forward booking of imports after keeping a lid on it for almost three years. The forward cover for importers was suspended in July 2008, when foreign reserves had sharply fallen to 3 months of imports amid sharp correction in the value of the rupee. Although, the allowance at that time was only against the opening of Letter-of-Credit (LCs) with no chance of speculative buying, virtually every importer was busy in buying dollars in advance against respective future payments. The regulator had to do something to give a breather to the market. However, the move could not stop the rupee’s slide and the import cover was further reduced to its lowest level of 2 months by the time the IMF came to the rescue. Now with positive external price shocks amid consistent growth in remittances through legal channels, the import cover has increased to 5.5 months ...
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  After nearly 40 days of lifelessness, excitement is slowly crawling back in at the KSE. As it turns out, select buying by foreign and local investors has pushed the benchmark index to a level which is seen ‘pointing towards a recovery’. The KSE-100 ended at 11,954 points last week – its highest since March 14 – after marking an intra-week high of 12,023 points, which was also its biggest intra-day tick since mid-March. That, and the fact that last week’s average trading volume rose 25 percent (week-on-week), is gently creating ripples of optimism. Big boys from the local mutual fund industry, who had been selling profusely in March, are also back at the buying counter. NCCPL data show that mutual funds – led by NIT and PICIC, according to market sources – have bought $20.46 million worth of equities in the month to-date, nearly offsetting the sale of $21.02 million last month. Last ...
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  Finally, it’s that time of the month, when Pakistan’s economic managers can have their feel good moment, while the politicians brag and boast of their performance. And why shouldn’t they? The latest external account numbers released by the central bank confirm the notion that Pakistan’s balance-of-payment position is in safe waters -- $99 million to be precise, for the first nine months of current fiscal year; which by the way is also the best nine-month performance since FY05. Even month-on-month changes are confidence boosters. SBP data show that trade balance in March dropped about 11 percent over February, whereas remittances also jumped 25 percent month-on-month. A closer look at the trade balance isn’t really disappointing either. Although, the SBP hasn’t released its detailed trade numbers as yet, that released by the FBS does provide a clue. Share of textile exports dipped to 52 percent of total overseas sales in the quarter ending March, down ...
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  With emerging economies eyeing financial tools to strengthen their competitiveness, ‘financial inclusion’ has become the new buzzword in recent times. The recognition that the availability of financial services to all segments of the economy, mainly small businesses, is vital to fuel the engine of any country, SME lending is gaining huge attention these days. Realising this business potential, the banking sector has to play its part in advancing services to this less-served segment of the society.  However, fears of mounting non-performing loans have been keeping lenders at bay. The SME-sector NPLs surged from around Rs36 billion in 2006 to Rs96.5 billion in 2010, with the NPL ratio rising from nearly 8 to 29 percent in 2010.  Deterred by this trend, bank lending to SME declined from Rs408 billion in 2006 to Rs334 billion by the year ending 2010. Another major stumbling block is the low Forced Sales Value (FSV) benefit accruing to banks. ...

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