Thursday, 14 June 2012 10:40
HANOI: Coffee output from Vietnam's current 2011/2012 crop would reach 20 million bags, up 2.7 percent from the previous season, the International Coffee Organization said, raising its estimate by around 9 percent from 18.3 million bags previously.
Following the revision for Vietnam, the world's second-largest producer after Brazil, the world production estimate in the current crop year was also lifted to 131.9 million 60-kg bags, from 131.4 million bags, the London-based ICO said in its May report.
The ICO's revision for Vietnam, an ICO member, came after many traders already revised up their own estimates for the country's output to between 22.5 million and 23.3 million bags.
Rising supplies from Vietnam could put downward pressure on robusta prices on the London futures market, where the September contract closed up at $2,099 a tonne on Wednesday from$2,070 a tonne the previous day.
Vietnam Customs said on Thursday the country's actual coffee export loading in May rose 21 percent from the previous month to 203,500 tonnes, or 3.39 million 60-kg bags, far above market expectations.
Exports between October 2011 and May 2012 reached 19.38 million bags, up around 12 percent from the previous season, based on customs data and government statistics.
In early May, coffee traders in Vietnam forecast the monthly export volume at 110,000-130,000 tonnes, while Vietnam's General Statistics Office on May 25 estimated the shipment at 150,000 tonnes.
The customs' export data for May will be included in a report of the statistics agency to be released late this month.
For the whole of calendar 2012, Vietnam could export 1.29 million tonnes, or 21.5 million bags, the farm ministry said.
HIGHER OUTPUT IN BRAZIL
World production prospects for the 2012/2013 crop, which has begun in several exporting countries, would be good, the ICO said, adding that Brazil was expected significant increases" in line with the biennial cycle for arabica production.
Brazil would produce at least 50.4 million bags in 2012/2013, up 16 percent from 43.48 million bags in the current 2011/2012 season, the ICO said.
It kept unchanged its estimate for Indonesia, the world's second-biggest robusta producer, at 8.25 million bags for 2011/2012.
The ICO revised production in Asia and Oceania incorporating Vietnam to 37.06 million bags, up 2.9 percent from the previous 2010/2011 season, from an earlier estimate of 35.43 million bags.
Output from South America was revised up to 58.97 million bags, partly after higher production in Ecuador, while Africa produced a combined 17.14 million bags in the current crop, a downward revision from 18.49 million bags in earlier estimated.
Production in Mexico and Central America was kept unchanged at 18.68 million bags when compared with the ICO's report for April.
Copyright Reuters, 2012