BANGKOKL: Thailand's central bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday to help industry continue its recovery from last year's devastating floods at a time of increased global risks.
Fourteen of 16 economists polled by Reuters expected the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave its one-day repurchase rate at 3.0 percent when its monetary policy committee (MPC) meets.
The other two predicted a 25 basis-point cut.
The MPC made quarter-point cuts in November and January to help business get through the floods in late 2011 that overwhelmed big industrial zones.
The central bank is likely to repeat that it is ready to cut the rate if needed. But, barring a sharp economic downturn, most economists expected no rate cut for the rest of 2012 as domestic demand should remain strong and help offset the impact of the global slowdown.
"Even with weaker exports, we still see strong domestic demand on the back of pent-up demand after the floods and government stimulus schemes," said Kampon Adireksombat, an economist at Tisco Securities, who predicted the rate would be left on hold all year.
However, some economists forecast a rate cut as soon as this week, following recent weak data as faltering overseas demand hurt exports and weighed on the manufacturing output index (MPI).
"A contraction in MPI could imply a fall in exports and further worsening external demand ... We could see further declines in MPI until October," said Pragrom Pathomboorn, economist at KGI Securities, who predicted a quarter-point cut in the policy rate this week.
Exports fell for the second straight month in July from the year earlier period, even as industry was able to restore more capacity after the floods. About a fifth of the affected firms are still closed.
EXPORTS WEAK, DOMESTIC RESILIENCE
Underscoring worries about global risks, deputy Govern Suchada Kirakul told Reuters on Friday that the central bank's export growth forecast of 7 percent might not be reached but the economy could still expand by around 5.7 percent this year.
Last month, the National Economic and Social Development Board, which compiles GDP data, slashed its export growth forecast to 7.3 percent for this year from 15.1 percent.
But it changed its GDP growth projection only slightly to 5.5-6.0 percent from 5.5-6.5 percent. Economists in a Reuters quarterly poll in July predicted growth of 5.2 percent.
In 2011, the economy grew just 0.1 percent due to the floods.
Despite weak exports and output, the domestic economy has been resilient with investment and consumption continuing to grow in July due to government stimulus measures and easy monetary conditions.
The minutes of the last MPC meeting on July 25 said the Thai economy continued to recover from the floods and the level of activity had returned to normal. It also said strong private sector growth and good employment conditions should help sustain private consumption and investment.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew by a more-than-expected 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months and 4.2 percent on the year.
Moreover, inflation has been benign despite a 40 percent rise in minimum wages in April, as government price controls and subsidies help hold down consumer prices.
Annual headline inflation was at 2.69 percent in August, little changed from 2.73 percent in July. Core inflation -- which strips out energy and food prices -- eased to 1.76 percent from July's 1.87 percent, inside the BOT's target range of 0.5-3.0 percent, which guides monetary policy.
The central bank has forecast headline inflation of 2.9 percent and core inflation of 2.2 percent for this year.
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