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In the oil world, geopolitical risks seem to have taken a backseat - at least for now - and the focus is shifting to the growing crude oil surplus. Crude oil prices have slithered to a multi-year low. In 2014 so far, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is around four percent down, whereas Brent crude oil has slipped by 12 percent in the same period.
As expected, September inflation clocked in on the higher side, closing in at 7.68 percent year-on-year. Having touched a 14-month low in August, the low base effect was expected to push CPI slightly higher. CPI in the first quarter has averaged 7.6 percent, well within the FY15 estimations of 8-8.2 percent.
Taking cue from politics, even perception surveys seem to be protesting against the country's economic management.
Mutual funds are bouncing back. Keeping aside commodity funds, each mutual fund category landed in the greens in September 2014. Recall that the preceding month turned out to be a dull period, where all categories of mutual funds (excluding fixed income funds) yielded negative returns.
Net loans to private sector businesses were in the negative in 2MFY15. But that doesn’t necessarily spell doom. If anything, a closer look at credit data (net of retirement) shows that the fears of falling private sector credit supply weren’t visible till the end of August 2014.
Regardless of what their fate turns out to be, the recent political frenzy seems to have jolted the government, which now seems to be more aggressive in following up on its earlier commitments. Last week, the Finance minister Ishaq Dar approved the constitution of the “Tax Reforms Commission” (TRC) as was committed in his budget speech for FY15.
The political climate that consumed much of 1QFY15 was bound to hit the public sector development programme (PSDP). Planning Commission data indicate that only 10 percent of the Rs525 billion FY15 federal PSDP had been released as of September 26. That’s half of the 20 percent ceiling for the Jul-Sep quarter, and may have only marginally improved in the remaining two working days in the quarter.


Index Closing Chg%
Arrow DJIA 16,614.81 1.31
Arrow Nasdaq 4,419.48 2.40
Arrow S&P 1,941.28 1.96
Arrow FTSE 6,372.33 1.68
Arrow DAX 8,886.96 1.94
Arrow CAC-40 4,081.24 2.25
Arrow Nikkei 14,804.28 2.03
Arrow H.Seng 23,088.58 0.08
Arrow Sensex 26,575.65 0.55

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Foreign Debt $61.805bn
Per Cap Income $1,386
GDP Growth 4.14%
Average CPI 8.6%
Trade Balance $-2.807 bln
Exports $1.911 bln
Imports $4.718 bln
WeeklyOctober 20, 2014
Reserves $13.436 bln