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Market is expecting status quo to be maintained in tomorrows Monetary Policy review. All nineteen research houses of brokerage firms, asset management companies and commercial banks contacted by BR Research are of the view that the central bank will not change the policy rate in the upcoming review on Saturday. Will SBPs decision match the expectations?
When your deposit base is growing in double digits and the mark-up you end up spending stays flat, you are surely in for a pretty good time. UBL in its 1HCY15 financial results has managed just that and much more. The strong 40 percent year-on-year pretax profit growth is well complimented by an interim dividend of Rs3/share.
Gold isn't what it used to be. Its certainly not worth what it used to be back in say, 2011! The yellow metal has been steadily losing luster since hitting an all-time high in September of that year.But the bottom came off on international gold prices on Monday.
Pakistani mango export is in trouble again. According, to the ministry of commerce the country has lost three of its five lifelines due to the issue of live fruit fly larvae. After two more export rejection would result in a 5-year ban on Pakistani mango exports to the European countries. And it wouldn't be the first time; last year Pakistan faced a similar situation when presence of fruit flies in shipments sent abroad drew harsh warnings from the European countries.
The current account posted a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP ($2.3bn) in FY15 as compared to 1.3 percent of GDP ($3.1bn) in the previous year - adjusting for $1.5 billion CSF reimbursement; the CAD soared to 1.4 percent of GDP. This simply falsifies the theory that improvement in current account is due to depressed oil prices - trade deficit on goods increased by 3 percent or $449 million in FY15.
The interest rates are down and are expected to stay there in the near term. But so are the private sector interest levels, which have refused to grow for quite some time. The latest SBP credit numbers repeat the same old story of muted private sector growth, with the bulk of credit serving the governments appetite. You would normally expect private sector credit to gather pace and in return spur economic growth, when the interest rates are receding - but even after accounting for time lag, it does not appear to be going that way.
The telecom giant continues to feel the pinch from the suspension of the International Clearing House (ICH) arrangement that had guaranteed high rates on long distance and international calls (LDI). In the recently concluded half-year, PTCL group's (KSE: PTC) top line was trimmed 11 percent due to this and lower Ufone revenues.


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Banking Review 2014

Foreign Debt $61.805bn
Per Cap Income $1,386
GDP Growth 4.14%
Average CPI 8.6%
Trade Balance $-2.378 bln
Exports $2.016 bln
Imports $4.394 bln
WeeklyJuly 23, 2015
Reserves $18.677 bln