Are remittances really up?

Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis rose 17 percent during the first eight months of current fiscal year, so cheered several business headlines on Thursday.
But year-on-year numbers tend to mislead sometimes. Here is why?
According to central bank data, average monthly inflow increased to $723.36 million in the fiscal year to-date, from $614.83 million in the year ago period. Hidden behind this growth is the fact that remittances in February stood at its lowest level since October 2008.
From what it seems, the honeymoon period of buoying inflows is over.
The boom period of remittances that extended up to September last year seems to have ended, with monthly inflows continuously sliding since then. This contrasts the trend of previous fiscal years when inflows typically rose or remained flat during the course of the year.
The decline comes despite the launch of PRI Scheme - co-launched by the government and SBP in October last year - that aims to attract remittances through formal channels. Some might quickly attribute this as a failure of the scheme.
But then, anybody with elementary understanding of other informal channels such as Hundi knows well, how pervasive the undocumented system is and how difficult it is to convince workers to send their money through the formal channel.
Only 34 percent of total remittances pour in through formal institutions, with about 42 percent coming through Hundi and remaining by hand, according to a June-2006 survey by the Overseas Development Institute.
Knowing that inflows from major countries also fell to multi-month lows in February, the real reason behind sliding remittances appears to be ailing economic situation across the world.
By now it is evident that the global economic crisis had left many Pakistani workers - mostly under qualified or under skilled, according to a recently published ADB working paper - jobless.
After the crisis, countries like "Bangladesh, Philippines, and Pakistan experienced sudden spurts in remittance receipts in mid-2009", according to ADBs flagship report released earlier this year.
However, this reflected the repatriation of the savings of returning migrants, who were laid off abroad due to business closures and a general lack of demand.
If this trend in reverse migration of workers continues, as may be the case, given the risks of double-dip recession recently pointed out by leading quarters, Pakistan could face real problems.
Pakistan heavily relies on remittances, with empirical evidence revealing positive effects of international remittances on household income and poverty reduction.
For families of the majority of workers who hail from rural or poor sub-urban areas, remittances are direly needed to provide for food, education and health. If the inflows stop, then they have had it - especially considering the gradual cut in the governments development spending.
These changing dynamics clearly call for an urgent pro-active action on part of the government - perhaps, starting from the appointment of the much-awaited finance minister.