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The West has seen its second black swan event in less than a year, which is quite phenomenal. First, there was the unexpected rise of the anti-establishment movement in the United States, which brought the election campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders into the mainstream. Despite all odds and predictions, Mr Trump has become the candidate of the Republican Party.
In a similar manner, despite the fact that the anti-establishment mood of English subjects was visible, and polls were showing split intentions, political pundits and economists hadnt fully priced in the Brexit vote in their models. Thats why it is not wrong to say that Britains vote to leave the European Union is the second event that correctly fits the definition of the black swan.
The catastrophic ramifications of Brexit have started as soon as the result of the referendum begun to come in. There is chaos in the establishment of both the Tory and the Labour party at the moment. David Cameron, who in 2015 won the election for the Conservative party, announced his resignation and will leave office in October 2016. The Labour leader who also becomes the party leader with the substantial majority is under extreme pressure to resign.
Its ironic that the first casualty of Brexit was the very unity of the United Kingdom. Now Scotland is plotting to hold its second secession referendum, after its first in 2014. If this happens, the union and whole existence of the United Kingdom would be shattered.
Perhaps history will decide David Camerons position in British politics, but he unknowingly took the Great Britain into the unchartered water, and now no one including the Prime Minister knows how it will end. The Brexit referendum was the promise which he made during last general elections to attract the thirteen percent votes of far-right. This strategy has helped him in securing those votes and the absolute majority in the British Parliament.
However, as Patrick Dunleavy of LSE puts it, the fix that helped Mr. Cameron win the elections left him friendless, and exposed, and forced to resign. Mr. Cameron utterly misjudged the British mood and misunderstood the provisional nature of the British peoples commitment to the European Union. For them, the union with EU should have been an economic arrangement.
Unlike the general election campaign which was quite successful, Mr. Cameron ran the Remain campaign quite disastrously. The issue of anti-immigration and asylum seekers which was further stirred up by the EU inability to handle it correctly was one of the focuses of the referendum. However, he was unable to provide a credible answer to this concern. Similarly, there were other questions which were asked by the British public that predominantly remained unanswered. In the last few months, Mr. Cameron along with his right-hand man, treasury secretary Mr. George Osborne was quite active with the fear tactics, or as they call it Project Fear in England.
Daniel Hannan, a Conservative politician and member of European Parliament, wrote that during the renegotiation process, there was a deal on offer for Britain to step away from the EUs political institutions while remaining in the market. Had the Prime Minister accepted the deal, the UK would have retained an associate membership of the EU.
But as per Hannan, Mr. Cameron replied that it was not the deal he wanted. Rather than taking the deal and calling off the Brexit referendum, he wanted to ensure his legacy. If everything had gone as per the plan, the Remain camp would have won, and Mr. Cameron would be known as the saviour of UKs membership of the European Union. It would not only have given him a prominent place in the British history, but would have also made him the first British leader since 1935 to not the leave the office due to some unforeseen reasons.
Interestingly, earlier this month in an interview, Donald Tusk, the European Council President was mocked when he said You can feel it. Something old ends, something new begins. I am afraid this could, in fact, be the start of the process of destruction of not only the EU but also of the Western political civilization. Nevertheless, one of the most important lessons that came out of the Brexit is that politicians should understand when they play with peoples emotions for their benefit it can backfire.

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