Flood impact: soon to be visible

It’s difficult to say how the final flood impact assessment report 2014 would like. Hopefully, it will not be as sobering as the one prepared after Floods 2010. Still, even as we write these lines, much damage has been done.
Since heavy monsoon rains and the ensuing floods began in the first week of September 2014, it has killed about 300 people. The rivers Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Jhelum have overflowed and brought flash-floods. Media reports suggest that more than a million lives have been affected; and there are risks of more human damage in the days to come.
Exact details of the damage to crops are not known yet. BR Research spoke to many agriculturists and agriculture experts, and those involved in the trading of farm produce. But almost all-–from rice and cotton to fruits and vegetables-–were uncertain of the exact nature of the loss by Saturday’s close of business.
In the north the observers are waiting for the waters to recede before any proper assessment can be made, whereas towards the south, in Multan and southwards, the water had just entered at the time of writing this, which made it difficult for agro producers and farming observers to assess the nature and quantum of the damage.
Rest assured, according to land satellite imagery taken by International Water Management Institute, on September 10, large-scale flooding along the major rivers has clearly impacted agriculture and livelihood.
And, while it might be too early to say, the impact appears to be visible in weekly inflation numbers. According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Sensitive Price Index rose 0.51 percent week on week (and 7.29 percent year on year) in the week ending September 11. This compared to negative week-on-week SPI numbers in the five consecutive preceding weeks may well be the beginning of flood related inflation. If 2010 is any guide, inflationary impact of the floods can be expected to become visible from this month and last for a period of 3-4 months depending upon the intensity of the damage. In 2010, Peshawar and Quetta suffered from highest inflation compared to other major cities. Which city would inflation hit the most this time around, one cannot say much, except to wait and see.