I own Karachi was a slogan made famous in the city when Senator Mustafa Kamal was Mayor of Karachi, and MQM can literally claim that. Time and again it has stamped its authority in the metropolis through the ballot power. 2013 was no different, as MQM almost clean swept winning 16 of the 18 constituencies contested. It will safely add at least one to the tally when the elections take place on the postponed NA-254 seat.
Ever since MQM started taking part in elections, it has hardly ever faced any resistance from any party. PPP was only confined to Lyari and Keamari constituencies and the MQM has even broken in Keamari, securing that seat for the very first time.
There have been plenty of reasons behind MQMs continuous success as the citizens have shown faith in the party, maybe because of lack of other options. JI has considerable strength in the city, but has always failed to materialise it in constituency politics.
Whats different this time around is the emergence of a potent force that can challenge MQM. Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) has made significant inroads in Karachi, securing the runner-up spot in 15 of the 16 constituencies it contested.
That is impressive for a party that was not considered a serious contender in the polls by other parties and pundits alike. It was also the only major city where PTI Chief Imran Khan didn attend the election campaign.
However, it needs to be said that PTI by no means has reached a position to threaten MQMs chances in the city. Not by a long shot. It is just that it has given a competition, which has made many including the MQM to stand up and take notice.
Now, here is some perspective to PTIs emergence as the second major political force in the city.
The average margin of victory for MQM in 2013 stands at a whopping 80,853 votes, which would probably be higher than what any party having hold of a major city could claim about. However, this victory margin is down 14 percent from that achieved in 2008.
The absolute advantage is such that this drop may not be a huge concern at the moment, but surely there is an opponent which has shown its presence.
Another interesting aspect is the turnout, which in line with rest of Pakistan, increased, from 48 percent in 2008 to 52 percent in 2013. The number of votes secured by MQM on seats contested, stands at 1.9 million, down four percent from nearly two million secured in 2008. Apparently, MQMs vote bank is sticky and it couldn pounce on the increased turnout.
The votes polled in Karachi increased by 390,848, and PTI got a little over 570,000 votes. This is considerably more than what any other party apart from MQM has ever secured in Karachi. PPP in 2008 secured close to 450,000, whereas MMA in 2002 got 430,000, having contested from all constituencies. So it is safe to say that PTI secured the bulk of new voters and also made inroads in the vote bank of other parties.
Interestingly, PTI has put up a strong fight in Karachis central district, which is considered MQMs strongest of strongholds in the city. The diversification of votes also tell that the PTI is not viewed as a party representing a particular ethnicity, having secured decent votes from Urdu-speaking middle and upper middle class areas on one hand and going on to the extent of winning a provincial assembly seat from the slums of Orangi town, which should ease the talks of it being a urger party.
While MQM has no immediate threats to its position of strength in the city, it is pleasing to see the continuation of democracy reaping its fruits. One hopes the two parties can coexist peacefully, which would certainly make Karachi a better place to live.
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KARACHI ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT
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2013 2008
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Total votes polled 3,302,442 2,911,594
Turnout 52% 48%
Avg winning margin (MQM) 80,853 94,551
MQM total votes 1,912,872 1,988,165
MQM votes as % of total 58% 63%
PTI total votes 574,358 NA
PTI votes as % of total 17% NA
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Source: ECP
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