With only 23 days left to General Elections 2013, all eyes are on Punjab. And with the analyses making rounds, Northern and Central Punjab is tipped to be the battlefield, as experts opine that PTIs emergence as a substantial political force has made this part of Punjab, an open ground.
The Southern Punjab, on the other hand is considered a region where the politics of electables hold high weightage in most parts of the region. A recap of the previous general elections is warranted.
South Punjab consists of 50 National Assembly constituencies from NA-148 Multan to NA-197 Rahim Yar Khan, one-third of Punjabs total NA constituencies. The contest has so far been restricted to the Muslim Leagues and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).
The PPP emerged as the single largest party in the 2008 polls, securing 23 of the 50 available NA seats. The two factions of Muslim League, PML (also known as PML-Q) and PML-N fought hard for the second and third spots, grabbing 13 and 12 seats respectively.
The regions average turnout in the previous three polls has stood at 53 percent, a good eight percentage points higher than the rest of Punjab. Of the seats won, the PML-Q enjoyed the highest turnout of 56 percent, whereas the turnout at seats won by the PML-N has been the lowest at 46 percent.
The PPP secured 2.36 million popular votes in the previous polls in South Punjab, closely followed by the PML-Q with 2.26 million votes. The PML-N, despite having won only one less seat than the PML-Q got roughly half the PML-Q votes, at 1.3 million. Moreover, the victory margin at seats won by the PML-N was nearly 20 percent less than those secured by either PPP or PML-Q.
With PPP and PML-Q, highly likely to finalise seat adjustment in South Punjab, the combined power poses a real threat to PML-Ns already slim chances in the region. And all this is without taking into account the unknown quantum that is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
The PTI is believed to have made significant inroads in some parts of the region and has a number of electables in its wings.
The relatively slim margin of victory for the PML-N, the likely PPP-PML-Q seat adjustment, the relatively lower turnout on seats won and a resurgent PTI are likely to cause a real headache to PML-N in the region. Mind you, of the 50 available seats, PPP and PML-Q have successfully retained 16 in successive elections, leaving a smaller pie to be had.
The PTI is banking on its electables as well as on increased turnout, an area where the PML-N hasn fared better previously. From what it appears, the PML-N, tipped by many as the frontrunner, will be hoping to perform exceptionally well in the rest of Punjab, to make up for the stiff challenge it faces in the South.
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SOUTH PUNJAB - GENERAL ELECTIONS 2008
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Seats Turnout Total Victory
won votes margin
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PPP 23 50% 2,369,459 19,700
PML 13 56% 2,269,202 19,156
PML (N) 12 46% 1,335,632 15,364
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Source: Pakistan Election Compendium, BR Research
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