2013: Need to revive the telecom sector prospects

The mobile network operators have been consistently adding subscribers to their networks. Latest statistics released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority show that registered cellular subscriptions had reached 121.6 million till October end last year. Nearly 1.5 million new subscribers were acquired in Jul-Oct period, which improved the cellular mobile teledensity to 68.8 percent by October-end.
The operators added 1.09 million subscriptions during the month of October, as each of the operators recorded net gains over its September tally. MNOs market shares have been moving up and down, but the rankings haven changed since last year when Zong replaced Warid for number four spot. As of October-end, Mobilink had 36.3 million subscribers, followed by Telenor at 30.4 million, Ufone 24 million, Zong 17.9 million, and Warid 12.7 million.
Though the potential for new subscriptions exists - because the quantum of unique users in the subscription pie is said to be between 70-80 percent - growth in new subscriptions has gradually waned. Following the November PTA ban on Sim sales through third-party franchises & retail outlets (which sliced up the MNOs retail arm), there is likely going to be negative subscription growth in subsequent months.
PTA stats show that the fixed local loop teledensity remained at 1.7 percent as of October-end, which means that landline subscriptions have stagnated somewhere above 2.5 million. Wireless local loop also subscriptions remained stagnant at 1.8 percent of the population. Broadband subscriptions had reached 2.2 million as of September-end last year, driven by increasing sales of DSL and EvDO connections.
2012 wasn exactly auspicious for the telecom sector. Continuation of inane government directives, regulatory lassitude and policy indecisions in the ongoing year would further fatigue the wailing operators, forcing them to cut corners which ultimately harm the customers.
It is quite apparent now that only a new government will be in a position to undertake any major decisions, and things may well be in auto-pilot mode for most part of the 1HCY13, owing to a scheduled electoral transition. To resuscitate Pakistans flagship sector of the yesteryears, it is imperative for the incoming government to start addressing some pressing sectoral issues right away.
First and foremost, the countrys telecom and IT policies of 2003-04 should be revised. What is required is an integrated and focused ICT policy, for duration of eight-to-10 years, rather than segmented policy frameworks. Issues like ICT infrastructure gaps, low broadband penetration, ICT education, software development etc. have to be revisited in light of regional and global experience. Emerging cross-cutting segments like mobile financial services have to be a part of such policy.
A strong government may finish the telecom auction business in short time. Target should be to complete the 3G/4G spectrum auction in the 1900/2100MHz frequency bands within 2013. Another pending spectrum auction (of over 600MHz in the 1.9GHz/3.1GHz bands to existing FLL, WLL & CVAS operators) should also be finished this year so that operators get more spectrums to expand their footprint.
Such measures and many more, will have to be taken for the advancement of the ICT sector in Pakistan. A change of lens is required at the policymaking level, because ICT services go beyond communication. They have a major role in improving productivity, and offer solutions for economic growth and social welfare.