KANDAHAR: Kandahar in southern Afghanistan has for the last year been the scene of a huge US push to stamp out the Taliban in its own backyard. But the key test of whether it has worked is yet to come.
Control of the province, birthplace of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and the militia's spiritual home, is seen as crucial to US-led efforts to reverse the Islamist insurgency and bring an end to America's longest war.
The precarious security situation in Kandahar was highlighted Saturday when 19 people, including 15 police and an intelligence agent, were killed in a string of attacks claimed by the Taliban.
They were the only latest to target pro-Kabul government officials.
With support from locals ambivalent at best, the big question is whether US gains will withstand intensified violence expected in a spring counter-offensive.
Asked what will happen in May or June, US Lieutenant Colonel William Graydon, chief of operations for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Kandahar, was frank.
"I don't know. But what I do know is that we will continue the pressure all winter so that there will not be a gap for the insurgents to come back," he told AFP.
The situation in the province also highlights wider uncertainty over what Afghanistan will look like after 2014, when Afghan forces are scheduled to take control of security, and to what extent foreign troops will remain involved.
In Kandahar, US troops led Operation Hamkari against the Taliban from last spring after President Barack Obama ordered a 30,000-strong surge under a last-ditch war strategy in late 2009.
NATO forces claim Kandahar city and nearby districts are now safer overall following intense fighting to clear traditional Taliban strongholds, which has left at least 99 troops dead.
But over nine years after the 2001 US-led invasion toppled the Taliban, government officials are still regularly attacked in Kandahar city, the de facto capital of the south.
As well as Saturday's police attack, the deputy provincial governor was assassinated last month.
Afghan security analyst General Helaludin Helal said the Taliban had been squeezed out of many of their heartlands but were now launching targeted attacks, particularly in and around Kandahar city, in retaliation.
"After their major defeats in Kandahar, the Taliban are now focusing on high-risk attacks to prevent people from joining the government side," he told AFP.
Graydon said that a "security bubble" has been extended to the neighbouring districts of Arghandab, Zhari and Panjwayi, parts of which had been controlled by the Taliban since the 1990s.
Commanders are pouring money into "cash for work" schemes to try and stop locals making their living by fighting for the Taliban in poor agricultural areas which, like the militants themselves, are dominated by ethnic Pashtuns.
However, some officers acknowledge this is a stop-gap solution. Concerns also linger over corruption among Western-backed officials in Kandahar.
President Hamid Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, is a powerful figure who heads the Kandahar provincial council but has long been dogged by claims of graft and drug trafficking, which he denies.
What happens in Kandahar has wider implications for the war across Afghanistan, experts say.
"Success in southern Afghanistan is a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful counter-insurgency in Afghanistan as a whole," said a report last month from Washington think-tanks the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute.
Like others of Afghanistan's most dangerous provinces, it is unlikely Kandahar will see any of the limited foreign troop withdrawals due from July.
Officials now increasingly stress the 2014 transition date, and the US commander on the ground, General David Petraeus, last week warned of more bloodshed in the spring as the Taliban tries to retake territory.
Last year was the bloodiest yet for foreign troops in Afghanistan.
But even after 2014, it is not clear what role the West will play in Afghanistan.
Karzai this week said he is in talks with the United States about establishing permanent US military bases in the country.
Although the Pentagon insists this would not be lawful, officials say Washington will retain strong ties to Kabul after 2014.
This leaves open the possibility of US forces training Afghan forces, having access to bases or even keeping a small counter-terrorism force in Afghanistan indefinitely to protect its national security interests.
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