Can future rice price shock be avoided?

Rightly categorised as the poor mans fare, extreme swings in rice prices are an ever-present uncertainty for both consumers and governments, bringing with it complex reverberations for national food security, nutrition and poverty.
The issue remains too close for comfort for the Asian region in general and the South East Asian countries in particular, where as of 2007, rice still accounted for 29.3 percent of the total caloric consumption.
However, despite having access to almost half of the worlds export supply- with 90 percent of the worlds rice being produced and consumed by its inhabitants - the ASEAN region is still the most exposed to threats to food security from variations in the price of rice.
With the memories of the 2008 global rice crisis still fresh ASEAN has set out to take major steps to mitigate volatility in rice prices.
Starting with the ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework and the Strategic Plan of Action for Food Security; the Association has worked continually to bring to light the two major challenges that prove to be a constant threat to rice prices in the region - namely policy shocks and the threats to supply caused by climate changes and low productivity.
According to the Association, rice security is as reliant on trade as it is on local production for ASEAN members. Thus the report calls for an elimination of export restrictions and emphasis on regional food security.
Samarendu Mohanty, an economist writing for IRRI (International Rice Research Institute) states that the global rice market, which is already smaller than that of other commodities such as wheat and maize, is likely to become even smaller as a result of major producers pursuing self-sufficiency.
Consequently, a smaller market will be characterised by greater price volatility as the smaller the market size, the greater the prices will have to move in response to any subsequent demand and supply shock.
This brings to light policy weaknesses characterising the ill-judged Thai Rice Pledge programme that one-year on from its inception has done justice to all analyst predictions. Having accomplished nothing more than adding millions of tons of rice to government warehouses and resulting in the possible loss of Thailands position as the leading global rice producer, a policy re-invention has long become essential.
On the whole, ADBs working papers set forth a very plausible argument in favour of fostering and promoting a healthy level of regional trade, since a strong global market is essential to achieve global food security for rice.
While this does not mean that countries should give up their basic right to produce enough food for its citizens, a much wiser approach would be to concentrate on increasing production by improving yield in a sustainable manner and to lower self sufficiency targets in exchange for commitments from exporting countries to abstain from unilateral export restrictions.