Power sector through the climate lens
July 11, 2012
BR RESEARCH
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One more factor adds to the vulnerability of the energy sector in the country. Power sector woes in Pakistan continue to escalate obstinately, and the takeaways from the ADBs recent study just add to the worries, especially with the monsoon gathering momentum already. Although the changes in electricity generation cannot be predicted in isolation, the foreshadowed global climate patterns impinge on the entire energy sector: from extraction of fossil fuels to the transmission and distribution of electricity. The effects of extreme weather conditions like hurricanes, floods and earthquakes have had their share in the history of global natural disasters. From the destruction of hundreds of oil and gas platforms during Hurricane Katrina, to the closure of oil refineries in 2010 floods of Pakistan, extreme weather events are known to clamp down the tectonic infrastructure. Besides shaking the extraction of fossil fuel, pipelines for transporting oil and gas are also vulnerable to flash flooding. Given that gas accounts for less than 44 percent of total electricity generated through thermal power during FY11, the countrys aggregate output and efficiency are highly vulnerable to climatic changes. Perhaps the most important effect is on the efficiency of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) which drops as the mercury rises. The ADB study reads, For gas turbines, the reduction in power output is proportional to temperature increase: it is estimated that an increase of 5.5°C in ambient air temperature may reduce output by approximately 3 percent to 4 percent." Of all, hydro-power generation is the most susceptible to extreme climate change in the country. Unpredictable flooding and changing seasonal and annual patterns for rains amid a lack of dams and hydro-power infrastructure, makes power output erratic. Pakistan is on the list of countries, prepared by ADB, which names countries whose power sectors are at greater risk from increased glacier melting, flooding, avalanches and landslides. Other countries on the enviable lineup are Nepal, Bhutan and China. Moreover, the study also speaks for siltation as a result of torrential rains and flash flooding that reduces reservoir storage capacities of a scanty number of dams. Above and beyond, power generation output and cost is also affected by the uncertainty in water flows, an increasingly strengthening phenomenon in Pakistan. Time requires a quick step towards adapting to the sudden and the not-so-sudden climactic changes. Adaptive responses that can deliver quick yet robust solutions are necessary. Ali Khazir Table
Brief Recording Table
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