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BR Research

US boarding the flight to recovery

The troubles of the eurozone are nothing new to any follower of international news. Words like ecession and slowdown have become almost syn
Published March 19, 2012 Updated March 19, 2012 12:00am

The troubles of the eurozone are nothing new to any follower of international news. Words like
ecession and slowdown have become almost synonymous with the worlds most prominent bloc. But before generalising the economic slowdown to be global in nature, recovery in the US needs to be highlighted.
US jobless claims fell to a four-year low last week, while applications for unemployment aid have declined 14 percent since last October. At the same time, the manufacturing sector also bounced back, particularly in the Northeastern side with the New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indices reporting an 11-month and 21-month high, respectively.
Even Warren Buffet spread the wave of optimism about the US last month, citing the success of his five largest non-insurance businesses which posted record profits last year and are expected to do the same this year. These five companies include a metalwork company, a railway network, an energy company, a lubricant and fuel manufacturer and a holding company.
And, when Buffet makes a statement, it has a significant impact on expectations about the economy, as Reuters quoted late last month, "His words carry weight, partly because of his successes over the years and partly from the sheer size and scope of Berkshire, which employs more than 270,000 people in nearly 80 businesses."
Commodities responded likewise to signs of a recovery in the US economy. Copper futures rose by 1.3 percent last week amid signs that the second-largest user of the metal is showing signs of recovery. Similarly, gold witnessed its worst weekly performance in three months last week as investors grew more optimistic about recovery in the US economy. The dollar also rose to an 11-month high against the yen on signs of recovery.
However, rising oil and gas prices continue to pose a challenge to the US economic recovery - rising around 9 percent since the start of this year - with many fearing the economy may be steered back into a recession. However, economists claim that the US recovery this year appears to be in better shape with better consumer and business confidence and a strong job market.
Still, rising oil prices are not something US economic managers can conveniently ignore. That, perhaps, explains why the Fed is expected to keep interest rates at low levels through late-2014 in order to sustain the economic upturn longer.
Overall, while the US rebound is not labeled as being striking or dramatic it is showing optimistic signs, nevertheless. And in general, any sign that the world may be inching away from a recession is a positive sign.

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