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BR Research

OGDC rides on improved prices

Published February 24, 2012 Updated February 24, 2012 12:00am

 The countrys largest E&P Company OGDCL said its 1HFY12 earnings improved by 32 percent versus the corresponding period of last year. Yet, the scrip price dipped by Rs.3.5/share as the earnings were below the market consensus estimates. The stupendous earnings growth came mainly on the back of top line growth which was fuelled by a robust increase in oil and gas prices and the Companys cash-rich position during the period. The top line improved at a healthy rate as both oil and gas realised prices for the quarter increased from the same period of previous year. The crude oil prices in the international market surged during 1HFY12 as the global supply situation was adversely affected following MENA unrest, leading to a significant 24 percent year-on-year increase in realised oil prices for the period at $82.03/bbl. The oil production flows, however, remained under pressure for most of the period due to adverse weather conditions and other disruptions, yet the Companys crude oil production dipped marginally by 3 percent year on year (35,897bbl/day) as the production flows increased from Pasakhi, Napsha and Mela fields. On the gas front, the revenue growth was muted as the gas production increased marginally by 3 percent versus the corresponding period of last year. OGDC is trying to enhance production flows by applying latest techniques and keeping natural decline to a minimum by closely monitoring and taking up regular work-over jobs wherever required. Wellhead gas prices during the period increased by just 2 percent as a result of which the revenue mix was evenly shared by oil and gas. OGDC has historically had natural gas as its major revenue earner, but the relatively stable production and price increase in natural gas versus a sizeable increase in realised crude oil prices, led to a shift in the revenue mix. A sharp decline in exploration expenditure provided the impetus to the bottom line as the company did not declare any dry wells during the period. Plus, the exploration activities also remained muted to a great extent in comparison to the same period of last year. A major boost to the bottom line came from four-fold increase in the other income. OGDCL has historically derived its other income from earning on cash and bank balances, and the favourable cash position during the period helped it earn a sizeable other income. That said, the inter-corporate circular debt is still hurting the Companys liquidity s its receivables mounted to a staggering Rs.109 billion as on December 31, 2011. The Company believes that the circular debt should be resolved soon as it is hampering not only the exploration and development activities, but also its dividend payout, which is also a loss to the governments kitty.

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OGDCL
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(Rs mn)                   1HFY12   1HFY11   chg    2QFY12   2QFY11   chg
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Sales                    88,680   81,090     9%   43,994   40,808     8%
Operating expenses       15,427   12,792    21%    8,197    5,571    47%
Gross profit             62,126   58,022     7%   30,222   30,060     1%
Gross margins                70%      72%   -2%       69%      74%   -7%
Other income              4,622      919   403%    2,318      408   468%
Exploration expenditure   1,781    3,536   -50%    1,116    3,495   -68%
PAT                      41,573   31,598    32%   19,658   16,428    20%
EPS (Rs)                   9.67     7.35            4.57     3.82
========================================================================

Source: KSE notice

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