Mangla Woes

The raising of Mangla Dam has become a hot new debate in recent days; the issue, however, has been long pending.
The dam, which was originally constructed in 1967, was upgraded in 2008 to increase its water storage capacity, by approximately 3 million acre feet (MAF).
Engineers involved with the Mangla Dam Raising Project (MDRP) told BR Research that silting had eroded the dams water-holding capacity by nearly 20 percent to 4.5 MAF. The raising, therefore, was initiated to increase storage capacity to 7.5 MAF.
The central issue these days is the failure to relocate the inhabitants, in accordance with the initial plan.
The raising of Mangla Dam, which is expected to generate roughly 1,200 MW, required the displacement of nearly 80,000 people. However, funds for the resettlement and compensation of the displaced population have not yet been disbursed, which is why the AJK government has been raising a hue and cry for many months.
The regional government is demanding around Rs15 billion for the completion of the project. The funds will be allocated for paying contractors and engineers involved in the resettlement of the people, as well as compensation funds.
In addition, the federal government had also committed to provide roughly 614 cusecs of water to the displaced people of AJK. However, upon being discussed with the provinces, water rights to the AJK were opposed by all the provinces, but the Punjab.
It is quite ironical that Sindh and Balochistan, being recipients from the water sources of the AJK, are opposing water allocation to the affected people of the Mangla Dam. Being the beneficiary of a resource that originally belongs to the AJK, a disbursement of 614 cusecs of water doesn seem like a feat too hard.
Consequently, the people of AJK have strongly resisted the filling up of the dam, which has been maintaining its stately presence in a fairly useless stance so far.
A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the efforts of WAPDA have been futile so far. Sources reveal that the project had been sent for approval to the Planning Commission of Pakistan with an estimated cost of around Rs60 billion. Today, the stated total cost incurred is a hefty Rs105 billion.
Given the potential to increase electricity generation by 1,200 MW from the Mangla Dam Raising, and benefits to irrigation, industry sources estimate that the unutilized Mangla Dam extension is costing roughly Rs10-12 billion to the economy.
With the MDRP completed two years ago, the losses incurred so far hover around Rs20-24 billion. Combine this with the investment of Rs105 billion incurred and the unused electricity generation potential of 1,200 MW, one wonders if it is about time that the Rs15 billion demanded by the AJK should be disbursed to them.
To add to the ado, by not allocating the 614 cusecs of water to the people of AJK, the government is also creating a feeling of mistrust.
In the long run, this will put the federal government at a disadvantage because some mega-projects in AJK, such as the Neelum-Jhleum Dam and the Kohala Dam, are in the pipeline. Displeasing AJK might deprive the government from potential sources of electricity and irrigation water in the future.