Hunzas looming water disaster

Today might be remembered as the day when Lake Hunza burst. Formed due to a "once-in-a-200-year" disaster on the fourth day of this year, the lake has been continuously growing since - displacing lives and threatening livelihoods along the Karakoram Highway.
Like most natural disasters, the Attabad Hunza Disaster was shockingly unpredictable. Though, the Focus Humanitarian Assistance - an Aga Khan Development Network agency - had been expecting a catastrophe for a long time, something of this magnitude wasn exactly the most probable scenario.
Following the Astor Earthquake of 2002, Focus observed a crack in the higher altitude rocks towering over Attabad. Later, they conducted a geological survey that pointed out to the authorities, the fatal nature of the risks. Accordingly, the populace was evacuated from the region.
But then, its hard to predict when and how will the mountains move precisely.
While the landslide of January 4, was expected, the debris of the landslide, which back lashed and blocked the waters, rang alarm bells. Soon a natural dam was formed; one which is expected to overflow sometime between today and tomorrow, according to the National Disaster Management Authority.
If and when that happens, more lives, in addition to the estimated number in the picture here, will be directly threatened.
"Some 36 downstream villages are at risk of being submerged," says Salimah Shiraj, Member for Communications at the Aga Khan Council Pakistan. Upstream, some 25,000 people living in upper Gojal will be literally cut off from the region.
Indirect consequences will be even more painful and long-lasting. Exact economic losses can be estimated at the moment, but will likely be varied.
First, the strategic link between China and Pakistan has been broken, as about 27 kilometers of the KKH is blocked, with seven of its bridges washed away by the lake.
Consequently, trade activities through the Pak-China border, routed though Sust Dry Port, will be hurt until the time the highway is fit to lorry goods again - something which can possibly take up to a year, given the difficult terrain of the region.
A blocked KKH - often termed as the 9th wonder of the world that boasts the mightiest of the worlds mountains - means fewer tourists too. This means no more summer earnings for the locals, who are already facing a drop in tourism earnings due to the ongoing war against terror.
Then there are fears that farming lands would turn uncultivable, rendering the population without any means to sustain themselves for about 2-3 years.
The government says it will help, as PM Gilani offered a package worth millions of rupees, right after his rivals, the Sharif brothers, announced their respective relief plans. How will the fiscally challenged government meet its promises is another question.
Some say, losses from the disaster could have been mitigated, if not avoided, had the government listened earlier to the warnings issued by Focus.
Reportedly, China Road and Bridge Corporation - the Sino firm tasked to renovate and expand the KKH - had offered to work on one of the precautionary options put forward by Focus last year for a price of Rs1 billion. But the governments response was at best lukewarm.
Yet, there is little wisdom in throwing mud at stakeholders while the disaster still looms. These lessons ought to be learnt after the mission to recover is successful.
In the meanwhile, the clock is slowly ticking and there is nothing that can be done to avert the blowing of the lake bomb. Once that happens, Hunza and the region will need volunteers, not bickering.

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Attabad Lake IDPs

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Reason                     Region                           People   Houses

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Land Sliding             Attabad, Sarat                       1652      141

Inundation               Attabad, Sarat                        N/A      312

Precautionary Measures   Dist. Hunza, Kohistan and Gilgit    16764      N/A

Road Blockage*           Shimshal, Sust, Chupurson, Mishghar     0        0

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* No lives lost, but economic activities/livelihood under threat
Source: NDMA, GoP