Should Karachi brace for increased loadshedding?

Now that the frantic election week is almost over, the real test of the winners lies ahead. All eyes are docked to a major plight of the masses - five years of severe energy torture, and the magnanimous hopes pinned on the new leadership.
In a sign of the gravity of the problem, one option that has started making speculative rounds is the diversion of 650MW of electricity being supplied to Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) by Wapda. As a consequence, concerns over the possibility of increased loadshedding in Karachi, and adjoining areas, cannot be ruled out.
For the leading political party, PML-N that went to the May 11 polls campaigning on energy crisis and economic issues, the power crisis will certainly be on top of the agenda. Most of all, how the new government tackles this swelling crisis will be worth watching as it might just revert to some short-term fixes to justify its heavy mandate.
Moreover, industry experts reckon that the government-to-be might start weighing the importance of this 650MW in the populism realm. Besides, it will not want to irate the already disgruntled industrialists by taking some unpopular steps that would welcome the wrath of its largest vote bank. One of them is pushing textile sector further down the gas priority list.
However, that is easier said than done. KESC officials believe that its five-year, legally-binding agreement with National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), guaranteeing 650MW supply to KESC/Karachi from the national grid, is enough to deter any such move.
Though not much information about the agreement has been made public, the contract expires in 2015. A former KESC top official explained that the 650MW of electricity is essential for the firm which has peak demand of around 2,500-2,600MW.
He also emphasised on Karachis factual right to benefit from the hydel resources up north, which also formed the basis of the legal agreement between the former and the NTDC.
Also, the issue of KESC utilising its idle capacity instead is not completely uncontroversial. While electricity generation from gas turbines has been facing shortfall of 90-150mmcfd according to the official numbers, electricity through furnace oil is certainly not an option as it is three times more expensive.
As per the information provided by the companys Media and Marketing Manager, whatever spare capacity KESC might have at any given point is all gas-based. And with the current gas supply constraints and allocation criteria, theres little chance in the short-run to get more gas for KESC.
In short, the possibility of a drift in the power supply from Wapda to its southern private counterpart, and the resultant load shedding in Karachi, is purely speculative as of now. From the looks of it the PML-Ns federal government has nothing to lose in Karachi and everything to lose in Punjab over the power crisis.
On the other hand, contravening the so-called watertight agreement between the national transmission company and KESC will send out negative signal to the foreign investors. The response it may draw from political parties here, is another looming question mark.