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BR Research

Oh! I see

Published June 2, 2011 Updated June 2, 2011 12:00am

The OICCIs business confidence survey shows zero confidence to boost business and investment activities in the country. In fact, if anything, the confidence index has been in the negative zone for the past three quarters, down from a positive reading of 6 points when the chamber first launched the exercise four quarters ago.
While this may not be sufficient to establish a trend, the fact that business confidence is down isn a surprising factor. The more astonishing fact is that this survey isn being given the kind of attention such surveys and opinion indices are allotted in both the developed and emerging economies.
In the US or in the UK, indicators like business confidence surveys, purchasing managers index, and consumer confidence index rattle markets and shake up mandarins to action.
For the uninitiated, the purchasing managers index is a composite index of five indicators vis-à-vis production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, inventories, employment level - whereas the consumer confidence index assesses the "degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending".
Unfortunately, in Pakistan, a country that boasts a roaring voice of right-seeking business and trade associations, such efforts are yet to be seen - the OICCIs initiative being a lone exception.
Understandably, the OICCI spends a substantial amount of its research budget on this quarterly survey. But, in order to make it a more meaningful representation of stakeholders sentiments, there is a need to turn it into a monthly exercise, considering that opinions and perceptions tend to be fickle based on how policies, stories and events shape up over time.
Making this survey a monthly feature may be achieved by joining hands with any other business or trade association.
"We are already keen to partner with other associations or multilateral agencies," says Abdul Aleem, the Secretary General of the association, adding that something along the lines of purchasing managers index may also be in the pipeline over the course of 2-3 years.
Other surveys that should make headlines soon include labour market surveys and periodic sector specific analysis, and business confidence polls by numerous trade and business associations whose only job seems to be ranting out aloud at the press conferences where they complain of a weakening business environment but boast lavish dinners.
Most importantly, however, in a country where more than 90 percent of the GDP comprises consumption, indices showing consumer confidence and consumption patterns are direly conspicuous by their absence. These are not only important to give some sense of where the economy is headed, but also gives businessmen a sense of direction to make their business plans.
Yet in an economy where poor governance continues to be an ever-present factor, confidence polls can be expected to show a lot of variation and meaning, regardless of whether they are conducted on monthly or a half-yearly basis, unless the omnipresence of poor governance is dealt with.

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