Let the poll preparations begin

The politics of reconciliation is fast coming to its natural path - i.e. of destruction. Muttahida Qaumi Movements highly anticipated decision to leave the federal cabinet has left the Pakistan Peoples Party more confused and nearly alone in the parliament. Yet, the chances of the government to be toppled appear remote - such is the nature of the ongoing politics in Pakistan.
For the general public, MQMs stance to quit the cabinet resembles that of the JUI, which recently left the scene after one of its ministers was expelled by the prime minister. On of the face of it, MQMs decision appears to be a result of Zulfiqar Mirzas lashing a couple of weeks ago that forced MQM to demand a clarification within ten days. The clarification never came.
But political analysts observing the situation closely see MQMs different from that of JUI. They believe that Mirzas statement was just a trigger and the party needed some time to prepare for the new elections which could be near or far.
"The MQM needed to take a more populist stand as the governments rating was plunging. The allies are now disassociating themselves from the government so as to not share the blame of the failings", shared a leading political analyst Talat Hussain, speaking to BR Research.
But the interesting thing to notice is that MQM has vowed not to destabilise the government, which clearly states that it does not want the government to fall quickly. And even if the MQM sits on the opposition benches, which is quite possible in the next phase, it would refrain from being a part of any move to bring an in-house change. The reason for that is very simple - no party including the MQM is ready yet to take over the setup which is currently in shambles.
"They are aware of the repercussions of a premature fall of the government, which will not be good. Nobody is willing to pull the plug just yet, it all seems to point towards preparation for the next elections...there is no danger of the government falling in the near-term, unless PPP itself calls it quits which seems highly unlikely" added Talat.
MQM being an integral part in Karachis politics naturally has a telling say in Karachis law and order situation. Whether or not the MQM will continue to form a coalition in the province is of slightly more significance to businessmen in Karachi.
"It does not seem the MQM will quit Sindh government, it suits them to be in the government there. It is a very clever move which will now allow them to pressurise the federal government on populist issues. At best they would want a caretaker setup in 7-8 months, by which time they will be well prepared for the elections," Nadeem Malik, a leading analyst shared his views with BR Research.
What will MQM do is anybodys guess; but the political battleground is heating up and the parties are definitely repositioning themselves in anticipation of fresh polls. It seems that no party wants an in-house change, as they all seem ill-prepared to run the system, they would rather wait for the PPP to take the difficult economic decisions and expect it to succumb to the pressure - an in-house change is highly unlikely.