Power politics: Its the economy, stupid!

Its been one of the longest runs for a democratically elected government in Pakistan. Analysts following the economy now predict an economic collapse in a few months, which may have spillover effects on the political landscape.
Now again, rumours abound of a potential change of dispensation in Islamabad. Where the lack of political will has been a settled issue, this time, the (mis)handling of flood relief efforts has cast long shadows on the governments capability.
Economic suffocation is adding salt to injury. And while the IMF and other donors initially displayed a softened stance, without the prescribed structural adjustments to the economy, the vital streams of loans will not flow. "The Pakistani economy will become bankrupt if it continues this way by December," warns noted economist, Dr Ashfaq Hasan Khan.
Governments, both at the centre and in the provinces, it seems, are oblivious to the economy, which is in need of intensive care. A case in point was last weeks meeting of the cabinet in the President house. While ministers were advised to disregard negative propaganda, there was no mention of the economy.
Where some political figures have called for some sort of army action, the majority of the legislative community strongly opposes it. Constitutional sanctity must be maintained, they say, and any change must be deemed legal.
Pending cases in the Supreme Court and the non-implementation of judgements on already decided cases may allow the judiciary to exercise its muscle. In the last few days, the apex courts stance has hardened considerably on the apparent lax attitude of the government. An independent judiciary, it seems, is the only hope for the people of Pakistan at the moment.
Short of a revolution, there are two options for change in Islamabad.
Without derailing the current democratic process, parliamentarians may pass a vote of no confidence against the government. Such a situation would lead to a reshuffling of alliances and remaking of the government with new faces.
It seems clear that Nawaz Sharif is bound by commitments to Saudi royals. Reportedly, his deal prohibits him for entering active politics for another two years. But in the past week, even he called for change through legal means.
The other, and the more likely scenario, is a move towards the Bangladesh model of reforms. Briefly explained, it is an interim setup of non-partisan technocrats. The goal is to initialize the rooting out of corruption and setting the ground for free and fair elections.
The Bangladeshi interim setup under the former governor of the central bank of Bangladesh, Fakhruddin Ahmed, had the support of the countrys strong army and largely the countrys population as well.
General Kayani and his men are not interested in running the affairs of government any more than they do already. But economic collapse is a pertinent risk to the army. Without direct involvement, the army might support the caretaker setup for economic revival.
Interim governments are required to hold elections within 90 days. But if history and the prevailing situation is anything to go by, the interim setup will probably last longer before the public is asked to vote freely.
And what about our dear allies views? Richard Holbrooke, Americas key man in the region, was reported to have mentioned the Obama administrations support of a democratic government. But historically, statements and actions from Washington are often at odds when it comes to the third world.
Voices in the corridors of power sense a change in October. Hopefully, it won be an October revolution!