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China may have to curb soya imports: Oil World

China may have to curb its huge soyabean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could push Chicago prices up again, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"World exports of soyabeans will suffer an unprecedented decline in September 2012/February 2013," Oil World said. "We now forecast exports at 38.0 million tonnes, a four-year low and an impressive 4.8 million tonnes below a year earlier." Soyabean futures hit an all-time high on September 4 after drought ravaged US crops following poor South American soyabean harvests earlier in the year.

Soyabean prices have slipped from the peak but the world faces tight supplies until the new crop from Brazil and Argentina enter the global market around March 2013. "This will require demand rationing, primarily in China, the world's largest importer of soyabeans," Oil World said.

However, China's September 2012 soyabean imports were still rising at 5.0 million tonnes, up by 0.8 million tonnes on September 2011, it said. "But sizeable year-on-year reductions in Chinese imports will be inevitable in October 2012/February 2013, resulting in a sizable decline in Chinese soyabean stocks," it said. The timing and volume of US soyabean exports to China will be a key price-determining factor to watch in coming months, it said.

Copyright Reuters, 2012


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