SINGAPORE: Spot gold may peak around $1,800 in four weeks and fall towards $1,600 per ounce thereafter.
The current short-term uptrend from the May 16 low of $1,527 is considered as a part of a correction that started from the 2011 high of $1,920.30.
The correction will develop three big waves labelled as A, B, C, and is approaching the end of the wave B.
The wave B could have adopted a flat pattern, which means its three smaller waves, the wave a, wave b and the wave c will roughly share the same length.
That makes it likely for the current wave c to peak around $1,800.
A downward wave C will take over the drive the price towards $1,600 again.
The correction from $1,920.30 is against the medium-term uptrend from the Oct, 24, 2008 low, if it has been sharp, it should have reached $1,301, the 50 percent.
So far, the correction has been sideways, signalling it will be shallow and last a longer time.
Gold has taken 748 days to rise from $680.80 to $1,920.30, while the correction from $1,920.30 to $1,527 has only lasted 182 days. A 50 percent of the 748 days would mean the correction may go on about 374 days, to end in middle Feb. of 2014.
In addition, the current pattern seems to be repeating the consolidation in a range of $410.40-$456.75 from Dec. 2, 2004 to July 15, 2005.
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