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putinMOSCOW: Russia's protest movement on Saturday holds its third mass rally in less than two months in a crucial test of whether it can keep up its momentum to pose a sustained challenge to Vladimir Putin's rule.

Tens of thousands are set to march from the south of the Russian capital to a square just over the Moscow river from the Kremlin to protest Putin's domination of Russia exactly one month before he stands in presidential polls.

The previous anti-Putin rallies on December 10 and 24, initially sparked by claims of fraud in December 4 parliamentary elections, smashed the taboo against mass opposition protests in post-Soviet Russia.

But with polls now predicting Putin could win the March 4 presidential elections in the first round, the rally will show whether the opposition can maintain its challenge in what promises to be a years-long struggle.

Analysts said while the demonstrators have little chance of ousting Putin in the next months, the movement poses a huge risk for the Russian strongman in the medium term if he fails to respond to rapid change in society.

"The march is very important," said Maria Lipman, analyst at the Carnegie Centre in Moscow. "It will show if they have preserved their determination to express their opinion."

"This is a not a political force but a civic force, an awakening of civic feelings among the more advanced part of the population. It could have long-term consequences if these feelings are going to get stronger."

After days of wrangling between the organisers and city hall, the protest was finally sanctioned by the authorities, meaning that the march should not be broken up by the police.

"We will gather as friends, smile and wave without the threat of being detained by the police," Navalny, who promised on December 24 the next rally would attract one million, wrote on his blog (navalny.livejournal.com).

Russia's trade union federation is planning meetings across the country to show working class support for Putin, in contrast to the opposition rallies where most participants are from the increasingly Internet-savvy middle class.

A pro-Putin workers' protest attracted 15,000 people in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg last Saturday while a similar rally is planned in Moscow on Saturday in a bid to trump the opposition protest.

In an apparent bid to counter the growing pressure for change, Putin on Monday published a voluminous article in the business daily Vedomosti admitting Russia needed a "new economy" and was bedevilled by "systemic" corruption.

"The article is aimed at voters, in particular business people and those who attended the rallies in December," said Andrei Yakovlev, pro-rector at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

According to the latest poll by the independent Levada Centre, Putin would still win the first round of the elections outright with 63 percent of the vote, well ahead of his nearest rival, the dour Communist Gennady Zyuganov.

The protest movement is deeply suspicious of Zyuganov and the leaders of the other nominally opposition parties in Russia who have never dared seriously challenge Putin's authority.

The candidate who comes closer to the protestors' vision of a liberal and democratic Russia is billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, but he has been tarred by accusations his candidacy is a Kremlin project to soak up the protest vote.

The sole outright liberal contender -- veteran Yabloko party statesman Grigory Yavlinsky -- was last week disqualified by the election commission on procedural grounds, a move that could add fuel to the weekend's protest.

The December 24 rally was a huge success as tens of thousands packed an avenue named after Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov to hear speakers including detective novelist Boris Akunin and anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny.

The new protest, again called through social networks, will take the form of a march with demonstrators moving from Bolshaya Yakimanka street in the south of the Russian capital to Bolotnaya Square just opposite the Kremlin walls.

Copyright AFP (Agence France-Presse), 2012

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